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8147 · Tomita Co., Ltd.Tomita Co., Ltd.

openmedium8147.T

📋 Several Taiwanese stocks are positioned as CPO exposure longs, with potential for growth as photonics scaling and industry events unfold

medium convictionFirst mentioned May 11, 2026 at $1.20K

Several Taiwanese stocks are positioned as CPO exposure longs, with potential for growth as photonics scaling and industry events unfold.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +CPO TAM goes from $0 to $91B according to GS research.
  • +Author successfully frontran the previous photonics supercycle with AAOI, LITE, AXTI.
  • +Many players with little exposure to current cycle (like SIVE, SOI) become new dominant CPO players.
  • +Markets typically price in 8-12 months ahead of mass production milestones.
Catalysts
  • ⚡Mass production start H2 2026 for scale out.
  • ⚡Scale up in H2 2027 driving massive growth.
Risks
  • −Existing US players (LITE, COHR) have legacy pluggable revenue that may face cannibalization, limiting re-rating potential.

Chart

Post Timeline · 1 posts

new thesishigh

People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on…

Thesis: CPO (co-packaged optics) is the #1 thematic long with TAM going from $0 to $91B. New dominant players in non-US markets (Europe: SIVE, SOI) and existing US players (LITE, COHR) stand to benefit. Legac…

view on X ↗SIVE · SOI · LITE · COHR
Current Price
$1.23K
via cornerstones
Return from entry
+3.01%
entry May 11, 2026 @ $1.20K
Sources
Signal post on X ↗@aleabitoreddit on X ↗
Thesis Lifecycle
🟢
openedMay 11, 2026

Nextronics (8147) supplies CPO connectors and Cage Thermal Modules to Nvidia CPO supply chains, also involved with Amazon and humanoids; material upside as Nvidia's CPO program scales, as flagged by Goldman Sachs.

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updatedMay 13, 2026+1 conv

Nextronics (8147) as Nvidia's CPO supplier has highly asymmetrical risk-reward with potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ market cap by 2028 based on napkin math showing 2x forward P/E for 2028.

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📝
updatedMay 14, 2026-1 conv

Nextronics (8147) is an undiscovered supplier to Amazon's robotics supply chain. As Amazon scales up its robotics program, Nextronics should see material revenue growth given its 38-40% gross margins and small market cap (~$200M).

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📝
updatedMay 26, 2026

Several Taiwanese stocks are positioned as CPO exposure longs, with potential for growth as photonics scaling and industry events unfold.

source ↗