AAOI · Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks… Than I was back at $2B or $6B. I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD. If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027… that…

Thesis: Increased bullishness on AAOI due to laser bottlenecks, potential long-term supply agreements with NVDA/AMD, and projected massive revenue ramp in H1 2027, despite near-term ATM overhang.

@MatteoDeDycker $600m ATM, still long term bullish on $AAOI

Thesis: Despite $600m ATM, long term bullish on AAOI.

@northyvt $AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like …

Thesis: Sivers Semiconductors is a pure IP play in CPO lasers with major hyperscaler suppliers using them, while Applied Optoelectronics is a pure manufacturing scale play; both are extremely bullish.

@PronologieFR $AAOI literally went from $28 to $170. That was a brrr. But if you're talking in short term timeframes, there's a $600m dilution ongoing, which caps upside.

Thesis: Mentions past price movement of $AAOI and notes ongoing dilution, but no clear investment thesis.

@PronologieFR Uhh just your $600m ATM with $AAOI, that causes a lot of near term pressure

Thesis: AAOI's $600M ATM offering causes near-term price pressure.

@IggyPacoRico1 I see no reason to long $IREN today when upside is structurally capped with excessive and toxic dilution structures. $AAOI would have returned 300%+ in the same period $IREN was flat to negative.

Thesis: IREN has structurally capped upside due to excessive toxic dilution; AAOI outperformed IREN significantly over the same period.

When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling…

Thesis: Post presents bullish theses on four photonics/advanced packaging plays: SIVE (CW laser supplier, expected to become next LITE), LPK (glass substrates, pure exposure, upcoming volume ramp), AAOI (larg…

$AAOI is now up ~6-7x at $200+. Feels like nobody else was long last year aside from me and like two other people on X? Remains one of my top high conviction optical longs moving forward into 2027 due to massive revenue ramp + Made in America supply chains. https://t.co/HD0724F…

Thesis: High conviction long on AAOI due to massive revenue ramp and Made in America supply chains.

@Jayden11129225 $LITE went from $2B to $80B in two years by owning the laser chokepoint for EML $AAOI went from $1.4B to $14B in one year by owning laser chokepoint for 800g/1.6T transceivers + assembly $SIVE is $1.4B today before CPO and owns the CW laser chokepoint. Sivers …

Thesis: SIVE is undervalued at $1.4B market cap, owning the CW laser chokepoint for CPO, analogous to LITE and AAOI which grew 10-40x by owning similar laser chokepoints.

@Jess252530 Yeah I ended up buying that drop and cost averaging up. It was actually extremely bullish projections, people shouldn't care about the current earnings reports for $AAOI if it's a 2027 late H1 growth company.

Thesis: Bullish on $AAOI based on extremely bullish projections for 2027 late H1 growth; current earnings are not relevant.

@nicomejia_ It happens. My guess is they’re probably selling $250m worth around $100 again like their previous ATM. Short term bearish, long term likely accretive unless $AAOI repeat use ATM beyond what they actually need to execute. That was the overhang I was mad with $AAOI …

Thesis: Short term bearish due to ATM overhang, long term accretive if not excessive.

$AAOI files for another $250 million USD ATM, upping the amount to $500 million. The positive note is: $AAOI has already finished their first ATM. Markets absorbed $250 million in selling pressure (likely ~$100 before the stock went to $120) and the stock increased anyway. “…

Thesis: AAOI files for additional $250M ATM, raising total to $500M. First ATM was absorbed well, but author is generally bearish on excessive ATMs, though notes $500M for capacity expansion may be accretive.

@SL2056 Yeah it makes sense to trim a bit and take some profits after the insane rally last two months! Not completely sell all positions though. For me I do more of active management for my own portfolio. I’m sure if you just hold things for the next three years given photoni…

Thesis: Trim some $AAOI after recent rally, but hold core position for 3-year photonics ramp.

We’re seeing third order effects in markets with $LITE, $AAOI, and photonics having a bloodbath, dropping 10%+. It’s multifaceted, with sector drop from Sandisk -10%+ and others selling off as well. But my nuance take is that the entire Japanese supply chain will likely run out…

Thesis: Japanese export controls on InP will cause supply chain constraints for western photonics players, affecting LITE, AAOI, COHR, and potentially exacerbated by AXTI's monopoly, leading to continued sell…