AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
π Update on multiple positions: VPG strong as 'hard carry' from Optimus thesis; AIRO breakeven after drop, thesis unchanged; LPTH down slightly on Germanium fix, long-term pivot unchanged; AVAV good long at $13-14B due to defense contracts scaling
Update on multiple positions: VPG strong as 'hard carry' from Optimus thesis; AIRO breakeven after drop, thesis unchanged; LPTH down slightly on Germanium fix, long-term pivot unchanged; AVAV good long at $13-14B due to defense contracts scaling.
Evidence & details
- +ONDS forward EV/revenue multiple ~28x, while AVAV was 8-9x and in Replicator program
- +AIRO was at ~2.5x forward P/S when bought
- +DPRO might be at 2.8x from some revenue calculations
- β‘Potential multiple compression for ONDS as peers trade at lower multiples
- β‘Replicator program involvement for AVAV and AIRO
- βPersonal opinion, not a formal analysis
- βMultiples may vary
- βDrones sector volatility
Chart
Post Timeline Β· 1 posts
@bennybigbull Personally speaking, I feel like $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies. I have $AVAV, $DPRO, $KTOS, and $AIRO for drone exposure. (Just going off the top of my head, dont take this too literally) Fwd EV/revenue multiples was ~28s+ now for Ondaβ¦
Thesis: ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies (AVAV, DPRO, KTOS, AIRO) based on forward EV/revenue multiples. Other drone companies offer higher upside.
A comprehensive set of stock ratings for 2026, focusing on recovery plays from tax-loss harvesting and sector tailwinds in AI, semiconductors, data centers, and defense, while avoiding overvalued quantum and retail names.
source βAIRO has solid cash position, attractive drone vertical with DoD/NATO tailwinds, deferred revenue not cancelled, low EV/revenue vs peers, and trades like distressed but shouldn't.
source βAIRO has a low market cap relative to its order backlog and cash position, suggesting potential undervaluation in the drone space.
source βAIRO is a small-cap drone stock with significant upside due to defense tailwinds, low valuation (~2.5x forward P/S), and confirmed orders from NATO/Ukraine, despite recent revenue miss from shipment delays.
source βThe recent selloff in $AIRO was caused by a misunderstood revenue miss that is actually deferred revenue to be recognized next quarter, representing a buying opportunity.
source βBoth stocks benefit from $1.5T defense spending tailwinds; information discovery pays dividends.
source βAIRO is undervalued at ~3x forward P/S compared to drone stock peers at 30+, with potential to rerate to AVAV levels (3x current price) driven by defense spending tailwinds.
source βUser is bullish on both AVAV (offensive kamikaze drones) and AIRO (interceptor drones), covering both sides of drone warfare. They have been cost averaging up on AVAV and report strong performance in AIRO positions.
source βBullish on SIDU (vertically integrated LEO satellite with MDA/NASA contracts), ACMR (becoming China's semi equipment substitute due to bans), and AIRO (drone company expanding into kamikaze and bullet drones with battle-tested credentials).
source βBullish on $AIRO due to strong financials, high growth, and strategic supplier relationship to $AVAV via $RCAT.
source βAIRO benefits from the need for mass-produced drone interceptors due to the proliferation of drones in warfare, central to Pentagon's Replicator program.
source βReaffirms thesis on multiple robotics supply chain stocks, continues to hold and cost average up on AIRO and LPTH as 1-year holds.
source βONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies (AVAV, DPRO, KTOS, AIRO) based on forward EV/revenue multiples. Other drone companies offer higher upside.
source β$ONDS has a 28 P/S ratio vs $AIRO's 2.5, indicating it is richly priced, but standalone $ONDS is still a justified pick.
source βPost asserts AVAV is the gold standard and already part of replicator, KTOS is also successful alongside it; AIRO offers highest potential for lowest downside risk in counter UAV replicator; DPRO is speculative with early-stage RKLB-like upside.
source βDespite tariff panic, fundamental buildout in defense, AI, and domestic hardware remains unchanged, presenting a valuation opportunity.
source βPersonal stock ratings with detailed commentary: Strong Buy on 14 stocks (SNAP, META, MU, TSM, etc.) citing catalysts like memory supercycle, bottlenecks, and AI tailwinds. Buy on 32 stocks including COIN, SMCI, GOOGL, and several crypto and drone plays. Questionable on VELO and SKYT due to weak fundamentals. Avoid on 11 stocks (UAVS, BKKT, PLTR, etc.) due to dilution, high debt, or overvaluation. Overall bullish on AI, memory, bottlenecks, made-in-America supply chains, and defense, with a long-term view until after midterms.
source βUpdate on multiple positions: VPG strong as 'hard carry' from Optimus thesis; AIRO breakeven after drop, thesis unchanged; LPTH down slightly on Germanium fix, long-term pivot unchanged; AVAV good long at $13-14B due to defense contracts scaling.
source βNo qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.