πŸ“‹ Update on multiple positions: VPG strong as 'hard carry' from Optimus thesis; AIRO breakeven after drop, thesis unchanged; LPTH down slightly on Germanium fix, long-term pivot unchanged; AVAV good long at $13-14B due to defense contracts scaling

medium convictionFirst mentioned Jan 2, 2026

Update on multiple positions: VPG strong as 'hard carry' from Optimus thesis; AIRO breakeven after drop, thesis unchanged; LPTH down slightly on Germanium fix, long-term pivot unchanged; AVAV good long at $13-14B due to defense contracts scaling.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +ONDS forward EV/revenue multiple ~28x, while AVAV was 8-9x and in Replicator program
  • +AIRO was at ~2.5x forward P/S when bought
  • +DPRO might be at 2.8x from some revenue calculations
Catalysts
  • ⚑Potential multiple compression for ONDS as peers trade at lower multiples
  • ⚑Replicator program involvement for AVAV and AIRO
Risks
  • βˆ’Personal opinion, not a formal analysis
  • βˆ’Multiples may vary
  • βˆ’Drones sector volatility

Chart

Post Timeline Β· 1 posts

new thesismedium

@bennybigbull Personally speaking, I feel like $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies. I have $AVAV, $DPRO, $KTOS, and $AIRO for drone exposure. (Just going off the top of my head, dont take this too literally) Fwd EV/revenue multiples was ~28s+ now for Onda…

Thesis: ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies (AVAV, DPRO, KTOS, AIRO) based on forward EV/revenue multiples. Other drone companies offer higher upside.

view on X β†—ONDS Β· AVAV Β· DPRO Β· KTOS Β· AIRO
Current Price
$8.89
via cornerstones
Return from entry
β€”
entry Jan 2, 2026
Thesis Lifecycle
🟒
openedJan 2, 2026

A comprehensive set of stock ratings for 2026, focusing on recovery plays from tax-loss harvesting and sector tailwinds in AI, semiconductors, data centers, and defense, while avoiding overvalued quantum and retail names.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 2, 2026-1 conv

AIRO has solid cash position, attractive drone vertical with DoD/NATO tailwinds, deferred revenue not cancelled, low EV/revenue vs peers, and trades like distressed but shouldn't.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 6, 2026

AIRO has a low market cap relative to its order backlog and cash position, suggesting potential undervaluation in the drone space.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 6, 2026+1 conv

AIRO is a small-cap drone stock with significant upside due to defense tailwinds, low valuation (~2.5x forward P/S), and confirmed orders from NATO/Ukraine, despite recent revenue miss from shipment delays.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 6, 2026+1 conv

The recent selloff in $AIRO was caused by a misunderstood revenue miss that is actually deferred revenue to be recognized next quarter, representing a buying opportunity.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 8, 2026-1 conv

Both stocks benefit from $1.5T defense spending tailwinds; information discovery pays dividends.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 8, 2026

AIRO is undervalued at ~3x forward P/S compared to drone stock peers at 30+, with potential to rerate to AVAV levels (3x current price) driven by defense spending tailwinds.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 12, 2026

User is bullish on both AVAV (offensive kamikaze drones) and AIRO (interceptor drones), covering both sides of drone warfare. They have been cost averaging up on AVAV and report strong performance in AIRO positions.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 13, 2026

Bullish on SIDU (vertically integrated LEO satellite with MDA/NASA contracts), ACMR (becoming China's semi equipment substitute due to bans), and AIRO (drone company expanding into kamikaze and bullet drones with battle-tested credentials).

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 14, 2026+1 conv

Bullish on $AIRO due to strong financials, high growth, and strategic supplier relationship to $AVAV via $RCAT.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 16, 2026

AIRO benefits from the need for mass-produced drone interceptors due to the proliferation of drones in warfare, central to Pentagon's Replicator program.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 17, 2026

Reaffirms thesis on multiple robotics supply chain stocks, continues to hold and cost average up on AIRO and LPTH as 1-year holds.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 19, 2026-1 conv

ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies (AVAV, DPRO, KTOS, AIRO) based on forward EV/revenue multiples. Other drone companies offer higher upside.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 19, 2026

$ONDS has a 28 P/S ratio vs $AIRO's 2.5, indicating it is richly priced, but standalone $ONDS is still a justified pick.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 19, 2026+1 conv

Post asserts AVAV is the gold standard and already part of replicator, KTOS is also successful alongside it; AIRO offers highest potential for lowest downside risk in counter UAV replicator; DPRO is speculative with early-stage RKLB-like upside.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 20, 2026-1 conv

Despite tariff panic, fundamental buildout in defense, AI, and domestic hardware remains unchanged, presenting a valuation opportunity.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 24, 2026+1 conv

Personal stock ratings with detailed commentary: Strong Buy on 14 stocks (SNAP, META, MU, TSM, etc.) citing catalysts like memory supercycle, bottlenecks, and AI tailwinds. Buy on 32 stocks including COIN, SMCI, GOOGL, and several crypto and drone plays. Questionable on VELO and SKYT due to weak fundamentals. Avoid on 11 stocks (UAVS, BKKT, PLTR, etc.) due to dilution, high debt, or overvaluation. Overall bullish on AI, memory, bottlenecks, made-in-America supply chains, and defense, with a long-term view until after midterms.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedFeb 2, 2026-1 conv

Update on multiple positions: VPG strong as 'hard carry' from Optimus thesis; AIRO breakeven after drop, thesis unchanged; LPTH down slightly on Germanium fix, long-term pivot unchanged; AVAV good long at $13-14B due to defense contracts scaling.

source β†—
πŸ’€
dormantMay 29, 2026

No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.