๐Ÿ“‹ ALAB selloff is a buying opportunity; CFO departure is immaterial and gross margin compression is due to Amazon deal optics

medium convictionFirst mentioned Jul 21, 2025

ALAB selloff is a buying opportunity; CFO departure is immaterial and gross margin compression is due to Amazon deal optics.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +ALAB up 14% feels overbought
  • +CREDO should play catchup soon
Catalysts
  • โšกALAB overbought
  • โšกCREDO potential catchup

Chart

Post Timeline ยท 1 posts

thesis updatemedium

Changed my mind on $ALAB, took profit at $217 so exited long and opened up short with $CREDO as a hedge. ALAB feels a bit overbought after going up 14%. $CREDO should play catchup soon though. https://t.co/oDIuqi0mFn

Thesis: Exited long ALAB at $217 due to overbought (14% rise). Opened hedge with CREDO expecting catchup.

view on X โ†—ALAB ยท CREDO
Current Price
$349.17
via cornerstones
Return from entry
โ€”
entry Jul 21, 2025
Thesis Lifecycle
๐Ÿ“
updatedOct 15, 2025-2 conv

ALAB is oversold despite competition from AVGO because big tech uses them anyway; CRDO sold off with Astera, both are good additions.

source โ†—
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updatedOct 15, 2025+2 conv

The author presents a broad bullish thesis on multiple growth stocks, particularly in AI/data center buildout (neoclouds), energy, and cybersecurity, citing catalysts such as rate cuts, government reopening, and seasonal trends. Key themes include the undervaluation of certain tech stocks after corrections, the importance of TSM as a central supplier, and the potential for re-rating in sectors like nuclear and memory.

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updatedOct 19, 2025

Author presents a comprehensive trading plan for rate cut week, recommending longs in neocloud, semiconductors, and select other stocks while selling overvalued quantum, space, and crypto assets. Key macro view: market fear is an ideal entry point ahead of expected rate cut.

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updatedNov 3, 2025-1 conv

ALAB and CRDO benefit from connectivity demand due to data center buildout, similar to memory stocks like MU and SK Hynix.

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updatedNov 5, 2025

ALAB reported strong earnings beat and raised guidance with stable margins, contradicting margin contraction fears. The sell-off is attributed to high beta and crypto correlation, not fundamentals.

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updatedNov 9, 2025

New macro setup (end of government shutdown and tariff dividend) is bullish for high-beta growth names like NBIS, IREN, RDDT, ALAB.

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updatedNov 20, 2025+1 conv

The author presents detailed bullish investment theses for nine stocks across AI infrastructure, space, fintech, and healthcare, citing specific catalysts and price targets based on fundamental analysis.

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updatedNov 25, 2025

AI capex is exponentially ramping up and flowing directly to neoclouds, connectivity, energy, semi/foundries, and memory stocks, with multiple recent catalysts confirming record growth with no slowdown in sight.

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updatedNov 25, 2025

Fears of AI bubble centered on OpenAI's massive capex and private LLM valuations; companies directly reliant on OpenAI (ORCL, CRWV) may be in trouble as competitors leapfrog GPT. Conversely, Mag7 capex beneficiaries (CIFR, WULF, IREN, NBIS, ALAB, CRDO) are extremely promising due to increasing capex from Mag7.

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updatedDec 9, 2025-1 conv

ALAB is an attractive buy due to higher margins than NVDA and triple-digit Y/Y growth, and it has pulled back from its $250 high, presenting a recovery opportunity.

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updatedDec 10, 2025

Post-Fed rate cut analysis provides stock ratings with explanations: Strong Buy on stablecoin, semi, and growth plays; Buy on AI infrastructure and select recovery plays; Avoid on overvalued or fundamental-less stocks.

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updatedDec 12, 2025

Broadcom's selloff is a buying opportunity due to misunderstood backlog floor and continued ASIC ramp for hyperscalers, benefiting the AI infrastructure ecosystem.

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updatedDec 20, 2025+1 conv

High conviction multi-bagger stocks for 2026: NBIS (AI Compute and Robotaxis), RKLB (Space), ALAB (Connectivity), CRCL (Money Printer), LITE (Hyperscaler ASICs).

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updatedJan 1, 2026-1 conv

Overview of 10 thematic investments for 2026, focusing on evolution, disruption, and bottlenecks in soft robotics, silicon photonics (InP bottleneck), glass substrates, money movement (disruption to card networks), AI cloud layers, LLM cybersecurity, LEO space infrastructure, consumer agentic workflows, distributed computing latency, and copper interconnect life extension. Expresses bullish views on specific companies and bearish on incumbent payment networks Visa and Bank of America.

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updatedJan 2, 2026+1 conv

A comprehensive set of stock ratings for 2026, focusing on recovery plays from tax-loss harvesting and sector tailwinds in AI, semiconductors, data centers, and defense, while avoiding overvalued quantum and retail names.

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updatedFeb 17, 2026-1 conv

Bullish on CXL stocks (ALAB, AVGO, MRVL) as memory fears are overblown; inference cost reduction from engram expands TAM rather than reducing memory demand.

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updatedFeb 17, 2026

Bullish on CXL ecosystem due to potential DeepSeek LLM architectural paradigm shift, with Astera Labs as key beneficiary.

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updatedFeb 17, 2026

Rising expectations for Chinese AI models, if proven in real-world performance, could positively impact US companies including ALAB.

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updatedFeb 17, 2026

ALAB selloff is a buying opportunity; CFO departure is immaterial and gross margin compression is due to Amazon deal optics.

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๐Ÿ’ค
dormantMay 29, 2026

No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.