ASMLASML Holding N.V.

Post presents multiple bullish theses on NBIS, AMZN, META, SNAP, RDDT, SPRB, RKLB, AMD, TSM, ASML, BTC, LTC, VIRT, with a bearish view on CRWV. Key themes: NBIS dip buy, Mag7 catchup, recovery plays, speculative SPRB, hold RKLB, AMD/OpenAI deal boosting semis, gold signaling BTC, LTC ETF, and VIRT as hedge. Risks include dilution for SPRB and minimal NVDA moat dent.

$TSM offers the best asymmetrical returns compared to $ASML and $AMD, as it measures AI buildout and has limited downside with significant upside.

ASML is a good long-term compounder as the sole EUV supplier, but its cycles track fab cycles rather than the direct AI capex trade.

Early investment in MBE machine suppliers like ALRIB, ASML, and AIXA benefits from hyperscaler qualification cycles and R&D capex orders before volume production, capturing revenue earlier than downstream players.

Multiple bullish signals in semiconductor and foundry sector: ASML and TSM have good earnings outlook, UMC has price hike for foundry, Taiwan OSATs like Shunsin (6451) are long due to demand outstripping supply.