AVGO · Broadcom Inc.Broadcom Inc.

AVGO earnings misunderstood; AI trade from NVDA and Mag7 ASIC ecosystem intact; market overreacting; volatility creates buying opportunities.

Failure of AI buildout due to Indium Phosphide bottleneck in $AXTI/China affects companies dependent on InP supply.

Capture InP supply shock and photonics BOM value through key players in AI supply chain.

Overview of 10 thematic investments for 2026, focusing on evolution, disruption, and bottlenecks in soft robotics, silicon photonics (InP bottleneck), glass substrates, money movement (disruption to card networks), AI cloud layers, LLM cybersecurity, LEO space infrastructure, consumer agentic workflows, distributed computing latency, and copper interconnect life extension. Expresses bullish views on specific companies and bearish on incumbent payment networks Visa and Bank of America.

A comprehensive set of stock ratings for 2026, focusing on recovery plays from tax-loss harvesting and sector tailwinds in AI, semiconductors, data centers, and defense, while avoiding overvalued quantum and retail names.

Personal stock ratings with detailed commentary: Strong Buy on 14 stocks (SNAP, META, MU, TSM, etc.) citing catalysts like memory supercycle, bottlenecks, and AI tailwinds. Buy on 32 stocks including COIN, SMCI, GOOGL, and several crypto and drone plays. Questionable on VELO and SKYT due to weak fundamentals. Avoid on 11 stocks (UAVS, BKKT, PLTR, etc.) due to dilution, high debt, or overvaluation. Overall bullish on AI, memory, bottlenecks, made-in-America supply chains, and defense, with a long-term view until after midterms.

Google's massive capex increase signals accelerating AI infrastructure spend, benefiting AI supply chain companies.

Both AVGO and MRVL have been sold off due to concerns about ASIC backlog and revenue recognition timing, but the market misunderstands the actual timing; buying now and holding for a year should yield positive results.

Hyperscaler AI capex is increasing dramatically, benefiting AI supply chain companies, especially ASICs, memory, and key enablers like TSM and NVDA. Hidden beneficiaries like AAOI, POET, MRVL, LITE also benefit.

Hyperscalers going into debt for AI capex benefits chip suppliers like NVDA, TSM, AVGO as they transfer balance sheets to them.

Bullish on CXL stocks (ALAB, AVGO, MRVL) as memory fears are overblown; inference cost reduction from engram expands TAM rather than reducing memory demand.

Bullish on CXL ecosystem due to potential DeepSeek LLM architectural paradigm shift, with Astera Labs as key beneficiary.

Google's massive data center buildout, potentially exceeding $1 trillion over a decade, will drive significant bullish outcomes for the Google TPU ecosystem including LITE, AVGO, TSM, and GOOGL.

Photonics bottlenecks in lasers, InP substrates, and CPO present asymmetrical long opportunities in key tickers.

The post outlines a portfolio of long positions across optical, AI, semiconductors, energy, and other sectors, with specific revenue ramp projections and long-term bets.

Rotation into CPO/ELS supply chains driving outperformance despite mega cap weakness.

Nvidia prefers SIVE independent, but potential share acquisition by MRVL or acquisition by AVGO to choke competitors' CPO roadmap.

Photonics CW laser chokepoint presents investment opportunity in high-beta exposure companies.

List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.

1.6T optical modules near mass adoption, with beneficiaries including AAOI (largest 1.6T capacity US pure play), JBL (contrarian long using LRO architecture), SIVE (powers Jabil's LRO, scales laser demand), and AVGO/MRVL as broad beneficiaries.