AVGO ยท Broadcom Inc.Broadcom Inc.
๐ Bullish on AVGO, looking to add on pullback
Bullish on AVGO, looking to add on pullback.
Evidence & details
- +Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027)
- +Demand for networking is insatiable
- +Orders run all the way to 2028
- +Initial order for 1 gigawatt received, delivery H2 2027
- +OpenAI silicon delivered, production late 2026
- โกAI demand growth
- โกCustom TPU programs
- โกNetworking demand insatiable
- โTPU margins pressure at scale
- โStocks don't move linearly
Chart
Post Timeline ยท 3 posts
@yuyy614893671 ็กฎๅฎ๏ผ้ขๆๅคช้ซไบใๆๆไผฐๅผ
Thesis: Broadcom's expectations were too high leading to a valuation correction.
Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - โฆ
Thesis: Broadcom earnings transcript reveals strong AI demand visibility through 2028, particularly for networking and custom chip programs, with positive read-through for other AI networking players.
@RyanMDorsey23 This is a research note on point failure of the entire AI buildout in $AXTI/China from both substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide. Iโm not doing valuation analysis on individual companies But if this flow stops, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO to $GOOGL, $MSFโฆ
Thesis: Failure of AI buildout due to Indium Phosphide bottleneck in $AXTI/China affects companies dependent on InP supply.
Personal stock ratings with detailed commentary: Strong Buy on 14 stocks (SNAP, META, MU, TSM, etc.) citing catalysts like memory supercycle, bottlenecks, and AI tailwinds. Buy on 32 stocks including COIN, SMCI, GOOGL, and several crypto and drone plays. Questionable on VELO and SKYT due to weak fundamentals. Avoid on 11 stocks (UAVS, BKKT, PLTR, etc.) due to dilution, high debt, or overvaluation. Overall bullish on AI, memory, bottlenecks, made-in-America supply chains, and defense, with a long-term view until after midterms.
source โGoogle's massive capex increase signals accelerating AI infrastructure spend, benefiting AI supply chain companies.
source โBoth AVGO and MRVL have been sold off due to concerns about ASIC backlog and revenue recognition timing, but the market misunderstands the actual timing; buying now and holding for a year should yield positive results.
source โHyperscaler AI capex is increasing dramatically, benefiting AI supply chain companies, especially ASICs, memory, and key enablers like TSM and NVDA. Hidden beneficiaries like AAOI, POET, MRVL, LITE also benefit.
source โHyperscalers going into debt for AI capex benefits chip suppliers like NVDA, TSM, AVGO as they transfer balance sheets to them.
source โBullish on CXL stocks (ALAB, AVGO, MRVL) as memory fears are overblown; inference cost reduction from engram expands TAM rather than reducing memory demand.
source โBullish on CXL ecosystem due to potential DeepSeek LLM architectural paradigm shift, with Astera Labs as key beneficiary.
source โGoogle's massive data center buildout, potentially exceeding $1 trillion over a decade, will drive significant bullish outcomes for the Google TPU ecosystem including LITE, AVGO, TSM, and GOOGL.
source โPhotonics bottlenecks in lasers, InP substrates, and CPO present asymmetrical long opportunities in key tickers.
source โThe post outlines a portfolio of long positions across optical, AI, semiconductors, energy, and other sectors, with specific revenue ramp projections and long-term bets.
source โRotation into CPO/ELS supply chains driving outperformance despite mega cap weakness.
source โNvidia prefers SIVE independent, but potential share acquisition by MRVL or acquisition by AVGO to choke competitors' CPO roadmap.
source โPhotonics CW laser chokepoint presents investment opportunity in high-beta exposure companies.
source โList of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.
source โ1.6T optical modules near mass adoption, with beneficiaries including AAOI (largest 1.6T capacity US pure play), JBL (contrarian long using LRO architecture), SIVE (powers Jabil's LRO, scales laser demand), and AVGO/MRVL as broad beneficiaries.
source โUpstream ecosystem beneficiaries of hyperscaler AI buildout funded by Google's capital raises and Berkshire investment.
source โBroadcom's high margin (~60%) may not be sustainable given competition and TPU success.
source โBroadcom earnings transcript reveals strong AI demand visibility through 2028, particularly for networking and custom chip programs, with positive read-through for other AI networking players.
source โPeople misinterpret AVGO CEO comments: demand is insatiable but hyperscalers will multi-source, so Broadcom will still grow but competitors like Mediatek, Marvell, and AlChip will benefit more.
source โ