AXTI · AXT, Inc.AXT, Inc.

几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系…

Thesis: 多个实质性垄断标的被列为重点关注，包括MSSCORP、SOI、NGK、AXTI，其中$SIVE逻辑类似，已打入顶尖CPO设计体系。同时提示$HIMX未来存在被踢出局（design out）的风险，但短期内仍有机会。

AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> …

Thesis: AI capex growth to $3-$4 trillion annually by 2030 will benefit companies controlling key AI buildout components: photonics, silicon photonics, laser chokepoints, epiwafer supply chains, neoclouds, an…

I literally called out a national vulnerability in the AI supply chain. Then went long on the quasi-monopoly in $AXTI. While everyone was doubting me. Guess what anon: it’s on the White House shortage list and one of the major talking points of US-China trade talks 6M later. …

Thesis: AXTI is a quasi-monopoly benefiting from a national vulnerability in the AI supply chain, now on White House shortage list and key in US-China trade talks.

Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon? IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER): "The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage" I said as phot…

Thesis: AXT is the upstream chokepoint for InP substrates, which are bottlenecking AI infrastructure as photonics ramps with next-gen optical architectures.

@Jornka329996 Oh it was Nippon Chemical Industries at $169m, if you take down that company it disrupts the entire AI buildout with photonics. Since its the #1 supplier of red phosphorus needed to make inp substrates at $AXTI, Sumitomo, and JX.

@LeaderInvests That’s called being predatory, especially with the share issuance size. I’m dumping every $AXTI position I have if it passes.

Thesis: Predatory share issuance by AXT Inc will dilute shareholders, leading to equity wipeout.

@BitcoinAIGuy There’s a difference between raising capital like $100m from Northland. Then getting your equity wiped out by doubling the float with $AXTI or $IREN. At least with AXT it’s a shareholder vote. IREN ATM is ongoing.

Thesis: Dilution from share issuance (AXTI shareholder vote, IREN ongoing ATM) is destroying equity value for both companies, contrasting with smaller capital raises.

@RonDeSantis Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's transl…

Thesis: General discussion of hyperscaler AI spending, supply chain vulnerabilities, rare earth dependency, and geopolitical risks without specific actionable thesis on any ticker.

I keep this all over X: Stop trying to model bottlenecks with traditional metrics like P/S or P/E… For $AXTI: It’s like you found a restroom after eating 20 Tacos with Pinto Beans from Taco Bell. You’re out of the toilet paper… but it’s urgent. A random guy next to you offer…

Thesis: AXTI benefits from InP substrate and feedstock supply chain bottleneck driven by hyperscalers, leading to pricing power similar to toilet paper shortage.

@be25458 What matters is % of capacity you produce, not # of suppliers. The # of suppliers don't matter when the upstream materials come needed to make InP substrates come from China. That's what I mean when there's two different bottlenecks with $AXTI / Vital, then Sumitomo …

Thesis: Highlights the upstream material bottleneck for InP substrates, noting that despite multiple suppliers, the critical raw materials originate from China, posing a supply chain risk for $AXTI and others…

@gauchos805 $WOLF was probably the most interesting one up there after restructuring. $LPKFF also for glass substrates and they own the laser induced deep etching at a $169m MC, so possibly most explosive 10x upside. $MTRN is probably the most stable one up there with decentl…

Thesis: The post discusses Western supply chain bottleneck plays, highlighting $LPKFF (glass substrates, laser etching, potential 10x upside) and $MTRN (owns major beryllium supply, stable with high upside).

We’re seeing third order effects in markets with $LITE, $AAOI, and photonics having a bloodbath, dropping 10%+. It’s multifaceted, with sector drop from Sandisk -10%+ and others selling off as well. But my nuance take is that the entire Japanese supply chain will likely run out…

Thesis: Japanese export controls on InP will cause supply chain constraints for western photonics players, affecting LITE, AAOI, COHR, and potentially exacerbated by AXTI's monopoly, leading to continued sell…

@NEgleston @jaysyoon If $AXTI is not able to export to US, then there are bigger problems to worry about regarding the AI buildout It's a huge threat to America which is why hyperscalers are engineering around it (which would take 3 years), in the meantime they're dependent htt…

Thesis: AXTI's ability to export to US is critical for AI buildout; hyperscalers are engineering around it but remain dependent in the short term.

@RyanMDorsey23 This is a research note on point failure of the entire AI buildout in $AXTI/China from both substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide. I’m not doing valuation analysis on individual companies But if this flow stops, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO to $GOOGL, $MSF…

Thesis: Failure of AI buildout due to Indium Phosphide bottleneck in $AXTI/China affects companies dependent on InP supply.

@gunnaosrs Don’t think hyperscalers understand the danger yet. $COHR is the leading “virtually integrated” American company. But the risk is it’s still stuck in the bottleneck for InP feedstock and buys 6N InP polycrystal (feedstock) from the merchant market. If the companies ab…

Thesis: Coherent is a hostage to the InP feedstock monopoly, risking its laser and transceiver business if suppliers cut supply.

@SwanShapedBird There is a lot risk with $AXTI for sure. That’s why it’s valued like a penny stock at $700m and not $30B+ like $SMTOY despite being both vertically integrated and one of the most important suppliers. And when you combine with the fact the AI supply chain is extre…

Thesis: AXTI is a vertically integrated key supplier of indium phosphide substrates critical for photonics in AI infrastructure, yet valued at only $700M due to perceived risks.

@VulcanMK5 Yep, $LITE and $COHR are amazing and are up quite a bit since they tons pricing power. Go few levels deeper into $AXTI (vertically integrated), Sumitomo -> Dowa, etc. the concentration risk + bottleneck flashes warning signs. With HBM, it was an investment opport…

Thesis: Photonic supply chain bottleneck similar to HBM presents investment opportunity in vertically integrated small caps AXTI and SMTOY as hyperscalers hoard materials.