πŸ”¬ The $2B effective ATM and current marketcap to NAV ratio are problematic for $BOT

high convictionFirst mentioned May 17, 2026

The $2B effective ATM and current marketcap to NAV ratio are problematic for $BOT.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +$145m of illiquid assets that frequently trade under NAV
  • +Market cap of $750M initially, now $490M after 37% drop
  • +$2,000,000,000 effective ATM via equity facility slow-dripping
  • +Retail providing exit liquidity at inflated valuations
Catalysts
  • ⚑Continued dilution from the ATM facility
  • ⚑Further NAV discount realization
Risks
  • βˆ’Pyramid scheme dynamics with float
  • βˆ’Wealth transfer to insiders

Chart

Post Timeline Β· 1 posts

new thesishigh

I'm not sure how anyone thought it was a good idea to buy $145m worth of illiquid assets in $BOT that frequently trade under NAV. For $750M MC. Even after the 37% drop, it's still ~$490M MC. On top of that, people are buying into a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM that's slow dr…

Thesis: $BOT is a poor investment due to holdings of illiquid assets trading below NAV, a massive equity facility causing dilution, and overvaluation even after a significant drop, essentially a pyramid schem…

Current Price
$28.98
via cornerstones
Return from entry
β€”
entry May 17, 2026
Thesis Lifecycle
🟒
openedMay 17, 2026

BOT trades at a massive premium to NAV ($7.34 NAV vs $37.92 price), implying an absurd ~$200B valuation for Figure while it's valued at $39B. Combined with $2B dilution, the stock is a red flag where retail serves as exit liquidity.

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πŸ“
updatedMay 17, 2026

BOT is significantly overvalued relative to its NAV of $7.34, trading at $37.92, implying a $200B+ valuation for Figure while it's valued at $39B. The fund has $2B slow drip dilution and is described as a pyramid scheme.

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πŸ“
updatedMay 17, 2026-1 conv

The post compares Unitree's $6B IPO valuation to Figure's implied $200B+ valuation via BOT, reinforcing the bearish view that BOT is overvalued.

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πŸ“
updatedMay 17, 2026

BOT is a closed-end fund trading at a massive premium to NAV, exposing buyers to overpaying for Figure (5x+ fair value) while facing $2B dilution.

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πŸ“
updatedMay 19, 2026+1 conv

BOT is overvalued at 4x NAV despite a 21% drop, with a $2B ATM facility and $146M in private assets; the valuation disconnect suggests a predatory move against retail investors.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedMay 20, 2026

$BOT is a poor investment due to holdings of illiquid assets trading below NAV, a massive equity facility causing dilution, and overvaluation even after a significant drop, essentially a pyramid scheme for retail.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedMay 20, 2026

The $2B effective ATM and current marketcap to NAV ratio are problematic for $BOT.

source β†—