📋 MicroStrategy is selling Bitcoin to survive the crypto bear market, indicating bearish sentiment on BTC

medium convictionFirst mentioned Jul 2, 2025

MicroStrategy is selling Bitcoin to survive the crypto bear market, indicating bearish sentiment on BTC.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +Warsh argues AI is a dis-inflationary force allowing rate cuts without inflation.
  • +He supports crypto as a generational store of value and wants U.S. leadership in blockchain.
  • +He advocates for rolling back Basel III capital requirements, benefiting banks.
  • +He wants to reduce regulatory burden on small banks, benefiting small-caps.
  • +For Europe, he is cautious due to strong dollar and energy costs.
Catalysts
  • Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair
  • Expected rate cuts and balance sheet reduction
  • Deregulation of banking and crypto sectors
Risks
  • Balance sheet reduction may tighten liquidity despite rate cuts.
  • Unwinding MBS could push mortgage rates higher.
  • Strong dollar may hurt emerging markets and some foreign stocks.

Chart

Post Timeline · 4 posts

noise

我刚刚想了一下,有没有可能现在 BTC 的跌是写好的剧本 因为 Michael Saylor 不可能不知道这段时间美股快到顶了,完全没必要在这个敏感的时间点卖出 32 个 BTC 来引发市场恐慌 会不会是这样的剧本,一些机构(比如贝莱德)的大饼仓位不够,于是让 Michael Saylor 搞了这么一出,刚好跌下来吸筹, 吸完了之后开始 pump 这样刚好能解释为啥 Saylor 卖无关痛痒的 32 个 BTC

Thesis: Speculates that the recent BTC drop is orchestrated by institutions like BlackRock to accumulate cheap BTC before pumping.

noisemedium

I feel like Bernstein and institutions missed a lot on why Bitcoin crashed. Same with WSJ + media, which is why nobody in retail knows. Two things: 1. “Clarity Act” + part of the Genius Act is a tactical nuke on crypto by banks + Gov to strengthen the dollar. “Safety” purpo…

Thesis: The US government's Clarity Act and CME margin hikes are destroying crypto liquidity and strengthening the dollar, but Bitcoin at current levels is cheap.

new thesishigh

Kevin Warsh is the next Federal Reserve Chair. Markets may confuse him as a "Hawk". His actual stance in 2026 is nuanced. Here's his policies and how they affect the markets: 1. AI/Semis ( $NVDA, $MU): Extremely Bullish 2. Metals (Silver, Gold): Extreme Bearish 3. Crypto ( …

Thesis: Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is expected to be bullish for AI/semis (NVDA, MU), crypto (BTC, CRCL), banking (JPM, BOA), small-caps (RUT), and cautious for European stocks (VGK, EZU), based on his pro-AI, …

view on X ↗NVDA · MU · BTC · CRCL · JPM · BOA · RUT · VGK · EZU
close signalmedium

@soulbiri1 Lol the portfolio etf above id be comfortable 1.5x margin. I'd be fine trimming $ASTS after 32% recovery. I still like $LTC and $BTC at these prices so I wouldn't trim for more $NBIS. Make sure to sell CC's!

Thesis: Trimming ASTS after 32% recovery; maintaining bullish stance on LTC and BTC at current prices; not adding NBIS.

view on X ↗ASTS · LTC · BTC
Current Price
$28.10
via cornerstones
Return from entry
entry Jul 2, 2025
Thesis Lifecycle
🟢
openedJul 2, 2025

Bitcoin LEAPS (2026-2027) have significant upside potential due to low implied volatility, USD debasement, global monetary expansion, and historical post-halving rallies in summer.

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updatedJul 2, 2025

Bitcoin has high probability to reach $120k this year based on Polymarket odds (76%), and July/August is the best time to buy before seasonal weakness.

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updatedSep 26, 2025

Portfolio adds and trades with reasoning for each ticker, including swing trades, DCA, and long-term holds.

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review neededSep 27, 2025

Trimming ASTS after 32% recovery; maintaining bullish stance on LTC and BTC at current prices; not adding NBIS.

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updatedOct 1, 2025

Both LTC and BTC are bullish. Tether printing money to buy Bitcoin supports BTC, and gold ATH is a tailwind. LTC at $8B market cap with ETF decision and new treasury companies has potential to 2-3x.

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updatedOct 6, 2025

Post presents multiple bullish theses on NBIS, AMZN, META, SNAP, RDDT, SPRB, RKLB, AMD, TSM, ASML, BTC, LTC, VIRT, with a bearish view on CRWV. Key themes: NBIS dip buy, Mag7 catchup, recovery plays, speculative SPRB, hold RKLB, AMD/OpenAI deal boosting semis, gold signaling BTC, LTC ETF, and VIRT as hedge. Risks include dilution for SPRB and minimal NVDA moat dent.

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updatedOct 12, 2025+1 conv

High conviction longs with bullish outlooks on space, semiconductors, financial infrastructure, crypto, and AI infrastructure.

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updatedOct 15, 2025

The author presents a broad bullish thesis on multiple growth stocks, particularly in AI/data center buildout (neoclouds), energy, and cybersecurity, citing catalysts such as rate cuts, government reopening, and seasonal trends. Key themes include the undervaluation of certain tech stocks after corrections, the importance of TSM as a central supplier, and the potential for re-rating in sectors like nuclear and memory.

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updatedJan 4, 2026

Venezuela holds ~600K+ BTC ($60B+), likely to be seized by U.S. and locked up as frozen assets or strategic reserve, reducing liquid supply and supporting higher Bitcoin prices, bullish for MSTR and Bitcoin holders.

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updatedJan 4, 2026-1 conv

Venezuela regime change and bitcoin seizure, combined with expected GDP growth contribution from Venezuela lowering oil prices, is bullish for bitcoin and markets.

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updatedJan 5, 2026

Venezuela may have converted gold sale proceeds into Bitcoin to bypass sanctions, potentially holding a large Bitcoin reserve.

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updatedFeb 1, 2026+1 conv

Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is expected to be bullish for AI/semis (NVDA, MU), crypto (BTC, CRCL), banking (JPM, BOA), small-caps (RUT), and cautious for European stocks (VGK, EZU), based on his pro-AI, pro-deregulation, and rate-cut stance.

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updatedFeb 2, 2026-1 conv

Buy Bitcoin and Ethereum during Crypto Fear and Greed Index extreme fear (15) based on historical positive returns over 2 months.

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updatedFeb 4, 2026+1 conv

Bitcoin and RKLB are highest conviction assets on a long term timeframe; portfolio allocation into Bitcoin at $73K.

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updatedJun 1, 2026-1 conv

MicroStrategy is selling Bitcoin to survive the crypto bear market, indicating bearish sentiment on BTC.

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