COIN · Coinbase Global, Inc.Coinbase Global, Inc.
📋 Long term disruption of card networks and interchange by USDC and crypto platforms like Circle and Coinbase, evidenced by AI agent settlements in USDC, leading to negative impact on V, MA, PYPL
Long term disruption of card networks and interchange by USDC and crypto platforms like Circle and Coinbase, evidenced by AI agent settlements in USDC, leading to negative impact on V, MA, PYPL.
Evidence & details
- +Circle sold 34M Class A shares in IPO at $31
- +202,550,578 Class A shares outstanding
- +77.6% of all outstanding Class A (157M/202.55M) will unlock in December
- +Unlock is ~463% of the 34M IPO float
- ⚡December 2nd share unlock
- −Dilution from large unlock
- −Low float amplifies downside
Chart
Post Timeline · 5 posts
Let's get this straight: The Clarity Act is a bank lobbyist bill. Where JPM and others lobbied both sides to get control over digital assets / $CRCL stablecoins. $COIN is probably going to sell out the industry because they got their conditional banking charter approved. But …
Thesis: The Clarity Act is a bank lobbyist bill that will ban non-banks from offering competitive yields via stablecoins, hurting crypto industry and potentially leading Coinbase to sell out.
@brian_armstrong The Clarity Act is just a poison pill nuke on the entire crypto industry, giving all the rails over to banks. Banning 3rd party yields for stablecoins allows banks to just keep their .01% interest rate checking. Then having banking licenses or IDI requirements…
Thesis: The Clarity Act's provisions on banking licenses and stablecoin yields could negatively impact Coinbase and crypto innovation.
@sjdedic @simononchain @Delphi_Digital @Delphi_Ventures @anildelphi @YanLiberman @ZeMariaMacedo @CannnGurel @ceterispar1bus @Shaughnessy119 @pierskicks Extremely disagree with the thesis. Everyone building YC fast-go-to-market "sick app with world-class UX" like crypto cards ar…
Thesis: The user disagrees with a thesis about crypto cards and neobanks, arguing that such apps add friction and are wrappers on existing networks. True long-term winners will be vertically integrated infras…
@DeepValueBagger Huge warning on $CRCL, especially going into December 2nd. You're trading on a low float. Circle sold 34M Class A shares in the IPO at $31. There's 202,550,578 Class A shares outstanding. 77.6% of all outstanding Class A (157M/202.55M) and ~463% of the 34M IPO …
Thesis: CRCL faces massive share unlock on December 2nd, with 157M Class A shares (77.6% of outstanding) unlocking, representing ~463% of the IPO float, creating severe selling pressure.
@investingluc We agree about irrational markets - but your reading comprehension is about as good as your TA. The point you missed: TA is useless when it ignores float + fundamentals. If 1% of float drives MC and 99% unlocks later like $BULL, charts don’t matter. The only valua…
Thesis: CRCL is a great short if it trades above 1/2 of COIN's market cap, because interest income is split 50-50 and Circle at $200 would be worth more than half of Coinbase.
CRCL is a great short if it trades above 1/2 of COIN's market cap, because interest income is split 50-50 and Circle at $200 would be worth more than half of Coinbase.
source ↗Author critiques a $400 price target for CRCL, noting that at that valuation CRCL's market cap would exceed Coinbase's, while Coinbase has additional revenue streams. Agrees with a $150 target.
source ↗Post-Fed rate cut analysis provides stock ratings with explanations: Strong Buy on stablecoin, semi, and growth plays; Buy on AI infrastructure and select recovery plays; Avoid on overvalued or fundamental-less stocks.
source ↗Coinbase's revenue split with Circle (CRCL) may decrease due to 2026 contract renegotiation and legal loopholes (Genius Act), while exchange business faces cannibalization by HOOD and zero-fee exchanges. Circle offers pure-play asymmetry as direct issuer.
source ↗Personal stock ratings with detailed commentary: Strong Buy on 14 stocks (SNAP, META, MU, TSM, etc.) citing catalysts like memory supercycle, bottlenecks, and AI tailwinds. Buy on 32 stocks including COIN, SMCI, GOOGL, and several crypto and drone plays. Questionable on VELO and SKYT due to weak fundamentals. Avoid on 11 stocks (UAVS, BKKT, PLTR, etc.) due to dilution, high debt, or overvaluation. Overall bullish on AI, memory, bottlenecks, made-in-America supply chains, and defense, with a long-term view until after midterms.
source ↗COIN is near the April tariff bottom at $171, which is a key support level. Similar setup in September 2024 at $150 led to a bounce. Author is buying at this level.
source ↗Crypto names have been reset after significant drawdowns, institutions are buying, and it's an opportunity to ride the wave back up.
source ↗The Clarity Act's provisions on banking licenses and stablecoin yields could negatively impact Coinbase and crypto innovation.
source ↗Long term disruption of card networks and interchange by USDC and crypto platforms like Circle and Coinbase, evidenced by AI agent settlements in USDC, leading to negative impact on V, MA, PYPL.
source ↗No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.