CRDO · Credo Technology Group Holding LtdCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd

ALAB is oversold despite competition from AVGO because big tech uses them anyway; CRDO sold off with Astera, both are good additions.

The author presents a broad bullish thesis on multiple growth stocks, particularly in AI/data center buildout (neoclouds), energy, and cybersecurity, citing catalysts such as rate cuts, government reopening, and seasonal trends. Key themes include the undervaluation of certain tech stocks after corrections, the importance of TSM as a central supplier, and the potential for re-rating in sectors like nuclear and memory.

Author presents a comprehensive trading plan for rate cut week, recommending longs in neocloud, semiconductors, and select other stocks while selling overvalued quantum, space, and crypto assets. Key macro view: market fear is an ideal entry point ahead of expected rate cut.

ALAB and CRDO benefit from connectivity demand due to data center buildout, similar to memory stocks like MU and SK Hynix.

AI capex is exponentially ramping up and flowing directly to neoclouds, connectivity, energy, semi/foundries, and memory stocks, with multiple recent catalysts confirming record growth with no slowdown in sight.

Fears of AI bubble centered on OpenAI's massive capex and private LLM valuations; companies directly reliant on OpenAI (ORCL, CRWV) may be in trouble as competitors leapfrog GPT. Conversely, Mag7 capex beneficiaries (CIFR, WULF, IREN, NBIS, ALAB, CRDO) are extremely promising due to increasing capex from Mag7.

Post-Fed rate cut analysis provides stock ratings with explanations: Strong Buy on stablecoin, semi, and growth plays; Buy on AI infrastructure and select recovery plays; Avoid on overvalued or fundamental-less stocks.

Broadcom's selloff is a buying opportunity due to misunderstood backlog floor and continued ASIC ramp for hyperscalers, benefiting the AI infrastructure ecosystem.

LITE is instrumental to NVDA Blackwell, GOOGL TPUs, and AMZN Trainium chips, making it core to AI infrastructure from every hyperscaler. CRDO has similar high margins and triple-digit growth as ALAB, with hyperscaler dependencies for connectivity.

Overview of 10 thematic investments for 2026, focusing on evolution, disruption, and bottlenecks in soft robotics, silicon photonics (InP bottleneck), glass substrates, money movement (disruption to card networks), AI cloud layers, LLM cybersecurity, LEO space infrastructure, consumer agentic workflows, distributed computing latency, and copper interconnect life extension. Expresses bullish views on specific companies and bearish on incumbent payment networks Visa and Bank of America.

A comprehensive set of stock ratings for 2026, focusing on recovery plays from tax-loss harvesting and sector tailwinds in AI, semiconductors, data centers, and defense, while avoiding overvalued quantum and retail names.

Added CRDO after a 25.7% drop caused by two pieces of misinformation: (1) Amazon cable color change misinterpreted as customer loss, and (2) Jensen Huang's 'cableless' comment about internal backplane, not CRDO's AEC business. CRDO's core product (AEC for rack-to-network connectivity) remains intact, and the company has photonics exposure via BlueBird and ZeroFlap.

CRDO benefits from copper life extension and optical DSP verticals despite optical bottlenecks and export controls; long-term demand for copper supports Credo's position.

CRDO's earnings continue to grow at insane rates, and while Marvell is a serious competitor, there is room for both. The biggest threat is optical, but expected optical component bottlenecks (with AXTI) will likely force hyperscalers to extend copper life, benefiting CRDO.

The drop in CRDO from $210 to $130 post-earnings was driven by misinformation (fake news about customer loss from color change), providing an attractive entry point. The user is personally buying at $130, hedged with photonics.

CRDO is undervalued after a market overreaction to Amazon's preference for Purple cables; the company's strong fundamentals justify a higher price.

CRDO is down 11% and the author would personally buy at these levels.

The selloff in CRDO to $95 was a huge overreaction, indicating a buying opportunity.

Credo is a core part of AI buildout with strong revenue growth and guidance beat, but long-term risks from photonics transition and loss of leader status.

No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.