ETH · Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETFGrayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF

The post provides bullish calls on $LTC (next month), $NBIS and $TSM (next year), bearish views on $ETH and $ALAB (overvalued), and suggests waiting on $SG.

Ethereum and BMNR are terrible longs; author sold ETH at $4k+ after buying at $1600.

Recommends selling ETH at $3900 and avoiding BMNR because it tracks ETH and ETH is overvalued above $3000.

Buying IBIT at current levels; bearish on ETH.

Author presents a comprehensive trading plan for rate cut week, recommending longs in neocloud, semiconductors, and select other stocks while selling overvalued quantum, space, and crypto assets. Key macro view: market fear is an ideal entry point ahead of expected rate cut.

MSTR and BMNR have suffered severe declines in the recent deleveraging shock, and ETH is a poor long above $4k as network usage does not drive price.

ETH token is a poor investment due to value being siphoned by Layer 2s; network growth does not translate to token price appreciation because L2s capture fees and Ethereum mainnet revenue has collapsed.

L2 scaling (blobs, EIP-4844) decouples Ethereum network usage from ETH token value accrual, making ETH/BMBR a poor investment above $4K despite network growth.

The original investment thesis for ETH (more usage -> higher price) is broken due to L2s and EIP-4844 shifting value away from L1, making ETH token and BMNR holding vehicle unattractive.

Ethereum's scaling via L2s and blob improvements reduce fee burn and value accrual to ETH, making ETH a poor investment.

Ethereum's economic value is shifting away from the ETH token due to scaling through L2s and token role changing from gas to governance/collateral, making the original investment thesis invalid.

Ethereum's blob fee floor and L2 optimization prevent meaningful ETH burn, undermining the supply contraction narrative.

EIP-7918 does not materially increase ETH burn rate; the increase is negligible.

Post-Fed rate cut analysis provides stock ratings with explanations: Strong Buy on stablecoin, semi, and growth plays; Buy on AI infrastructure and select recovery plays; Avoid on overvalued or fundamental-less stocks.

A comprehensive set of stock ratings for 2026, focusing on recovery plays from tax-loss harvesting and sector tailwinds in AI, semiconductors, data centers, and defense, while avoiding overvalued quantum and retail names.

Reduced ETH burn rate from thousands to 6 ETH per day indicates lower deflationary pressure, which is bearish for token prices despite increased network adoption/utility.

Added positions on the drop across multiple names due to price declines, expressing uncertainty about future direction.

Buy Bitcoin and Ethereum during Crypto Fear and Greed Index extreme fear (15) based on historical positive returns over 2 months.

Bullish on Ethereum again at $1.6k-2.2k after being bearish at $3-4K, but overall market sentiment is slightly bearish due to Iran tensions.

No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.