GOOGL · Alphabet Inc.Alphabet Inc.
📋 谷歌巨额增发股票用于AI基建投资，短期存在承压，但长期看好AI趋势，伯克希尔投资表明信心
谷歌巨额增发股票用于AI基建投资，短期存在承压，但长期看好AI趋势，伯克希尔投资表明信心。
Evidence & details
- +Photonics stocks (LITE, AAOI) are dropping 10%+
- +Sandisk dropped 10%+ signaling sector weakness
- +Japanese export controls on InP will limit supply for western optical buildout
- +COHR is already capacity strained and will worsen with Sumitomo, JX affected
- +AXTI becomes a monopolistic bottleneck for InP substrates
- ⚡If Japan removes export control ban on InP (unlikely)
- ⚡If AXTI delivers substrates at scale after $100m funding to double capacity
- ⚡If pricing premium downstream like HBM offsets product supply shortage
- −Supply chain vulnerability due to Japanese export controls
- −Monopolistic bottleneck by AXTI
- −Continued sell-off in photonics sector
Chart
Post Timeline · 5 posts
@RonDeSantis Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's transl…
Thesis: General discussion of hyperscaler AI spending, supply chain vulnerabilities, rare earth dependency, and geopolitical risks without specific actionable thesis on any ticker.
@Bonek2801 Risk management purposes. I’d rather hold 50% in Bitcoin around $70K than sit on cash to lower volatility. Also the downside risk of $VPG is $TSLA creating their own sensors and vertically integrating it away. Similar bear case with $GOOGL and OCS with $LITE though.
Thesis: Downside risk for VPG from TSLA vertical integration; similar bear case for LITE with GOOGL.
We’re seeing third order effects in markets with $LITE, $AAOI, and photonics having a bloodbath, dropping 10%+. It’s multifaceted, with sector drop from Sandisk -10%+ and others selling off as well. But my nuance take is that the entire Japanese supply chain will likely run out…
Thesis: Japanese export controls on InP will cause supply chain constraints for western photonics players, affecting LITE, AAOI, COHR, and potentially exacerbated by AXTI's monopoly, leading to continued sell…
@RyanMDorsey23 This is a research note on point failure of the entire AI buildout in $AXTI/China from both substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide. I’m not doing valuation analysis on individual companies But if this flow stops, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO to $GOOGL, $MSF…
Thesis: Failure of AI buildout due to Indium Phosphide bottleneck in $AXTI/China affects companies dependent on InP supply.
@LoganMacGregor9 Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just u…
Thesis: Lists four main risks for NBIS and other AI infrastructure companies: hyperscaler vertical integration, GPU depreciation, credit tightening/dilution, and overbuildout due to software efficiency breakt…
Waymo (GOOGL) dominates robotaxi with Level 4, while Tesla's FSD is Level 2 and requires human monitoring, making it snake oil; competition with Avride+Uber is key.
source ↗Nvidia is a strong buy on the dip despite competitive threats from hyperscaler custom chips like Google TPU, due to blowout earnings and $500B backlog ensuring dominance for at least two years.
source ↗The TPU v7 Ironwood performance leap (up to 10x compute) makes previous cost analysis of v6e irrelevant for comparing GOOGL TPU vs NVDA GPU, suggesting potential competitive shift.
source ↗Own both GOOGL and NVDA for AI exposure; GOOGL is less risky due to diversified catalysts, while NVDA offers higher upside if AI accelerates with robotics/agents.
source ↗The post compares Level 4 readiness of NBIS (Avride) and GOOGL (Waymo) vs TSLA's Level 2 FSD, highlighting that TSLA's claims are marketing while competitors already have working systems. It acknowledges TSLA's scalability advantages but notes current operational shortcomings.
source ↗Post-Fed rate cut analysis provides stock ratings with explanations: Strong Buy on stablecoin, semi, and growth plays; Buy on AI infrastructure and select recovery plays; Avoid on overvalued or fundamental-less stocks.
source ↗InP substrate supply is a critical bottleneck for AI photonics, with a duopoly of $AXTI and $SMTOY controlling majority supply. Hyperscalers' AI programs (TPU v7, Maia, MTIA) are tethered to these companies, leading to price spikes and potential delays.
source ↗Failure of AI buildout due to Indium Phosphide bottleneck in $AXTI/China affects companies dependent on InP supply.
source ↗Personal stock ratings with detailed commentary: Strong Buy on 14 stocks (SNAP, META, MU, TSM, etc.) citing catalysts like memory supercycle, bottlenecks, and AI tailwinds. Buy on 32 stocks including COIN, SMCI, GOOGL, and several crypto and drone plays. Questionable on VELO and SKYT due to weak fundamentals. Avoid on 11 stocks (UAVS, BKKT, PLTR, etc.) due to dilution, high debt, or overvaluation. Overall bullish on AI, memory, bottlenecks, made-in-America supply chains, and defense, with a long-term view until after midterms.
source ↗Market liquidation cascades from silver crash and hawkish Fed nomination fears, but overall fundamentals remain bullish with expected rate cuts and AI growth. Recommend repositioning to FCF-generating names and being cautious on speculative high-beta names.
source ↗Market dislikes GOOGL's massive CAPEX increase, but AI supply chain companies benefit.
source ↗AI capex spending by GOOGL and META is positive because they fund it from operating cash flow and it drives strong revenue growth, unlike short-sighted buybacks.
source ↗Mag7 earnings strong and sustainable growth, but monitor Bitcoin/Ethereum for liquidity risks.
source ↗The 1 million job revision signals a permanent structural shift due to AI/automation, not a slowing economy. Corporate profits will explode as companies replace human labor with AI and robotics. Investors should buy AI supply chain equities to hedge against unemployment and benefit from margin expansion.
source ↗Google's massive data center buildout, potentially exceeding $1 trillion over a decade, will drive significant bullish outcomes for the Google TPU ecosystem including LITE, AVGO, TSM, and GOOGL.
source ↗Photonics bottleneck due to China-controlled materials and Nvidia securing EML capacity will cause supply constraints for hyperscalers META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL.
source ↗List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.
source ↗