IRENIREN Limited

@IggyPacoRico1 I see no reason to long $IREN today when upside is structurally capped with excessive and toxic dilution structures. $AAOI would have returned 300%+ in the same period $IREN was flat to negative.

Thesis: IREN has structurally capped upside due to excessive toxic dilution; AAOI outperformed IREN significantly over the same period.

$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos an…

Thesis: IREN is facing dilution and is a marketing company, while NBIS has better financing and performance.

$POET and $IREN literally both won the Fake it Until you make it award. -> Grey area endless marketing of crap through influencers. -> Diluted retail enough to hoard tons of cash -> Cash is sets baseline Market Cap. Now $POET probably has around $830M pure cash from dilution…

Thesis: Post criticizes POET and IREN for using influencer marketing and dilution to raise cash, implying their valuations are artificial.

Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By…

Thesis: NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler; holding long term without trimming avoids taxes and compounds, while borrowing against assets is better than selling.

As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. $NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet. So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means. It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured powe…

Thesis: IREN is a poor investment compared to NBIS because NVDA did not fund IREN, requiring constant ATM dilution to buy GPUs, while NVDA funded NBIS. IREN is essentially a marketing company with no equity a…

@LMutaaya People were saying "WERE YOU KIDDING" when I posted I was bearish on $IREN at $71. $NVDA isn't giving them any funding, so they need to raise elsewhere to buy GPUs for their 5 GW capacity. Convertible notes is actually a lot better way to go than ATMs though.

Thesis: Bearish on IREN because NVDA is not providing funding, forcing IREN to raise capital elsewhere to buy GPUs for their 5 GW capacity, which could lead to dilution.

@CookerFlips In a sense. The main bull case for $IREN was their software acquisition with Mirantis recently if you want to look past the fluff. Still wouldn't want to be the one to get diluted $6B to fund their 5 GW worth of GPU purchases.

Thesis: Main bull case for IREN was software acquisition with Mirantis, but dilution of $6B to fund GPU purchases is a major risk, reinforcing bearish view.

$IREN and $SLNH investors are probably the most braindead communities I've interacted with on X. I've never seen a community so bullish on a $219M MC stock that has a new $1,000,000,000 dilution. And an ongoing $500,000,000 ATM. Then you have $IREN, with $6,000,000,000 act…

Thesis: Both IREN and SLNH face massive ongoing dilution through ATM offerings, making equity appreciation unlikely for investors.

I wasn't joking when I said $IREN community members have low IQ. Since they literally have to fabricate information get people to get others to buy into active dilution. The community shares this sort of BS to convince new retail investors, then does another one a month later…

Thesis: IREN community fabricates information to support the stock amid active dilution, with no deal with Anthropic.

@Lazarus_Capital $IREN community members literally fabricated a false deal with Anthropic to pump stock prices ahead of a Morning announcement. Then their board member fabricates information all the time then deletes it after the stock that has an ATM going on crashes.

Thesis: IREN community members fabricated a false deal with Anthropic to pump stock prices ahead of a morning announcement, and a board member repeatedly fabricates information and deletes it after stock cras…

The community / influencers shilling $IREN, $BKKT, and $ASST are the most delusional and harmful group on X. Markets are the greatest arbiter of truth. If something is down 99%. And the next stock they try pushing has a $6,000,000,000 active dilution. And you show that it’s …

Thesis: Warns that stocks promoted by influencers (IREN, BKKT, ASST) are dangerous due to extreme dilution and poor performance, making investors exit liquidity.

There's a reason $IREN is down -7.9% YTD. While $NBIS is up 61.1% YTD. The amount of delusion buying into a $6,000,000,000 ATM is unreal. Even after this, IREN AMC bagholders still can't admit they're wrong? Markets are the biggest arbiter of truth, and massive performance …

Thesis: IREN's $6B ATM is dilutive to current shareholders, causing underperformance vs peers like NBIS. Market cap may rise but share value declines. Better to wait until ATM finishes before going long.

@BitcoinAIGuy There’s a difference between raising capital like $100m from Northland. Then getting your equity wiped out by doubling the float with $AXTI or $IREN. At least with AXT it’s a shareholder vote. IREN ATM is ongoing.

Thesis: Dilution from share issuance (AXTI shareholder vote, IREN ongoing ATM) is destroying equity value for both companies, contrasting with smaller capital raises.

@Kaizen_Investor Yes if you were $GME, $AMC CEO’s a logical choice might be to dump ATMs on a retail shareholders to benefit the company because they would take it. However $IREN bagholders or meme stocks, I would not personally just sit there and get diluted from around double…

Thesis: IREN faces potential dilution from doubling share float, which is predatory and could hurt bagholders.

@CaesarCapitalz If $IREN can monetize their raw assets through capex-light colo or after the dilution is finished. Otherwise, there's no point of "trusting" in management that have diluted retail to oblivion in stocks like $BKKT before. $6 billion is an extreme amount, and the…

Thesis: Skeptical of IREN due to massive $6B ATM dilution and history of management diluting retail in stocks like BKKT.

@Belfort_Trading $IREN share price doesn’t matter. What matters is marketcap. The price could be $17 in a few months while MC stays same. TA’s don’t work when there’s excessive dilution and eroding fundamentals working against you

Thesis: Dilution from ATM offering makes share price irrelevant; market cap focus shows that dilution erodes value, making technical analysis ineffective.

Do you guys think there’s only $5,650,000,000 dilution to go with $IREN? Very surprising that people haven’t switched to $NBIS or other names if you’re long Neoclouds. One already has confirmed funding with $NVDA + convertibles from institutions. The other is likely actively s…

Thesis: Post contrasts IREN and NBIS, favoring NBIS due to better financing structure (confirmed funding from NVDA and institutional convertibles) versus IREN's reliance on market dilution to fund capacity, m…

@0xInitialAce Cutting at a loss might be better with things like $IREN. So you can chase better opportunities that don’t have capped upside from dilution. Just my two cents, people are free to be liquidity and buy into the $6B dilution.

Thesis: Advises cutting losses on $IREN due to capped upside from $6B dilution.

@maxpoop69 Might be helpful to read the post. Maybe this is why people still think $6B $IREN ATMs are noise and their stock prices are going to go up 10x since they don’t read filings? https://t.co/JI6DfdsxdX

Thesis: Iren filed to dilute $6 billion at an $11.7B market cap, indicating they plan to sell shares onto the open market, which is bearish for the stock.

@BonyBallf2 @Kaizen_Investor $6,000,000,000 dilution and sales into the open market for $IREN is not "noise".

Thesis: The $6B ATM dilution for IREN is a material bearish event, not insignificant noise.

If $PL, the $11B company filed for a $6,000,000,000 dilution, I'm pretty sure everyone would leave their positions. The reason why $IREN filed for a $6B ATM is because the cult "diamond hands", "buy the dip" community are happy to tank the dilution as long as the company succee…

Thesis: $IREN's $6B ATM dilution is bearish; the community's acceptance of dilution to fund growth is a risk to equity appreciation.

@bennybigbull Not saying $IREN is going to crash or go down. My nuanced point is that upside is capped when there’s an active $6B ATM. So it’s better to just go with equities without a structural ceiling.

Thesis: Upside for IREN is capped due to an active $6B ATM program causing dilution risk.

I’m genuinely impressed there’s people out there holding $IREN. Imagine getting close to half the market cap… ~$6B eventually diluted, sold into the open market against every stock rally… then still being bullish? If you’re avoiding $SNDK or $AAOI for 100-200%+ YTD. Because…

Thesis: IREN is overvalued due to massive dilution, comparing its market cap to potential dilution suggests downside risk.

@weary_centurion Thanks and sorry to hear that. I’m just trying to give justified warnings about ATM dilution. I did the same with $BKKT last year before ATMs sent everyone’s shares to oblivion. But got the same personal attacks like I’m getting with $IREN now. Regardless stil…

Thesis: No new thesis; user reflects on past ATM dilution warnings for $BKKT and $IREN.

@hoiyeahhhh Across $BKKT, $ASST, and maybe $IREN. The strategy has been identical. Generate massive retail hype around a hot narrative (Bitcoin treasuries, AI agents, DCs), wait for the stock to spike, and immediately dump shares via ATMs to fund operations and pay executive SB…

Thesis: Management across these companies uses a strategy of generating retail hype around hot narratives, then dumping shares via ATMs to fund operations and executive compensation, hurting retail shareholde…

@JC_GetRichSlow It’s not adding nothing to the dialogue when there’s a material $6 Billion USD ATM. It’s also public information $IREN management was involved companies $BKKT as well. Dismissing clear risks and track records as “fearmongering” is immaterial. https://t.co/QifmHk…

Thesis: IREN management has a poor track record with prior companies (BKKT, ASST) and the $6B ATM presents a dilution risk.

@Yeah_Dave Yeah, unlike others that design their own things like custom server racks to bypass oem costs, $IREN does spend a lot of capex on it, which does hurt margins a bit

Thesis: IREN's heavy capex spending on custom server racks hurts margins, unlike peers who bypass OEM costs.

@__visionxry__ Good question! As for $CRWV, $NBIS, and $IREN, I haven’t done a BOM on B300 clusters, but optical networking is probably around 10-20% of capex. I remember doing calculations and increasing InP prices by 30 times would only create a 3% marginal increase on cluste…

Thesis: Discussion about InP cost impact and potential shift to custom ASICs, but no explicit thesis on any ticker.

@jiahanjimliu @RJCcapital @DeepValueBagger @Agrippa_Inv On the expedited element alone, it’s a pretty obvious negative given how much % margins it is for $IREN. And it’s even worse if they don’t pay it and face $MSFT delays + contract termination. That’s just the objective/non-…

Thesis: Expedited costs are an obvious negative for IREN margins, and the situation could worsen if IREN doesn't pay and faces MSFT delays or contract termination.

@LoganMacGregor9 Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just u…

Thesis: Lists four main risks for NBIS and other AI infrastructure companies: hyperscaler vertical integration, GPU depreciation, credit tightening/dilution, and overbuildout due to software efficiency breakt…

@AndreasSteno So few things $IREN investors might misunderstand: it's more nuanced than 21.2% float -> short squeeze. With IREN a lot of SI is convertible note arbitrage. When institutions acquire convertible notes after the offering, they short the underlying shares for hedging…

Thesis: High short interest in IREN is not driven by retail short squeeze but by institutional hedging from convertible note arbitrage after a $1B offering.

@PerssoJP I don't use full-stack and vertically integrated interchangeably, my wording is very precise when I talk about $ORCL. $NBIS does mixed to expand margins. The main issue with $IREN is that they're doing full-stack where software orchestration is an incredible and mi…

Thesis: Downgraded IREN due to high execution risk in its full-stack HPC AI cloud pivot, as similar efforts by CRWV took years and Oracle failed.

@yianisz The deal looks a lot worse for $IREN when you look into FCF generated more instead of revenue numbers since it's not pure colo. When you normalize to 300 MW and compare MSFT deals $IREN is projected to do ~30s gross or even low single digits in bear cases, and $NBIS ~…

Thesis: IREN's deal with MSFT looks worse when considering FCF generation and normalized margins compared to NBIS. IREN takes on $5.8B CapEx for GPUs, leading to low margins (30s gross or low single digits in…

@moninvestor After looking into it more, looks like $NBIS's deal with $MSFT was largely better than $IREN's in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. It's not purely about revenue, since if you're not generating FCF from it, it's not that useful. For …

Thesis: Comparison of NBIS and IREN deals with Microsoft: NBIS shows higher gross margin (51.76%) vs IREN (~38%) when normalized to 300 MW, suggesting NBIS may have better profitability.