LITE · Lumentum Holdings Inc.Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Bullish on photonics and laser exposure plays, with highest upside in SIVE.

Reaffirms bullish view on laser/photonic companies $SIVE, $AAOI, and $LITE based on past performance and expectation of better macro environment.

Too many shorts on AAOI, LITE, SMH may be squeezed due to positive geopolitical developments.

List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.

Photonics supercycle underway with AI-driven demand surge; Lumentum's order pipeline full through 2028, benefiting the trio of American photonics companies.

LITE's backlog extending into 2028 signals extreme demand and lack of capacity, which along with hyperscaler demand spillover, positions AAOI as the largest 800G/1.6T capacity in America with vertical integration; execution on capacity ramp is expected to drive significant revenue growth, supporting a $40B market cap target.

LITE sold out into 2029 with CPO mass production confirmed for H2 2026; NVDA upstream supply chain for CPO/photonics benefits.

Reaffirms long-term bullish thesis on a basket of semiconductor and related stocks, noting that short-term entry points vary but overall market validation continues.

Photonics supercycle with multiple architectural shifts. Beneficiaries include LITE, COHR for current cycle (still 50%+ upside), AAOI and JBL for transitional bridge, SIVE and POET for CPO future, AXTI for all cycles, and ALMU for future quantum dot packaging.

AI hyperscaler demand is causing widespread supply chain bottlenecks across semiconductors, materials, and infrastructure components, benefiting companies exposed to CPUs, semiconductor equipment, photoresists, grid components, optical modules, and photonics.

Metaphor describing supply chain for optical components: SIVE and LITE produce specialized components (blue/red lobsters), POET processes them, MRVL integrates and sells. Nvidia buying red lobsters (alternative supply) may push MRVL to buy directly from SIVE/LITE, bypassing POET. The situation is fluid.

Lumentum is fully booked through 2028, especially with NVDA, and is well-positioned to benefit from the massive CPO TAM expansion ($15B to $154B). Long-term direction is bullish, though short-term price action is uncertain due to option flow and expected beat.

CPO names are incredibly bullish due to a massive supply-demand imbalance confirmed by $LITE CEO, with CPO scaling still in early stages.

LITE's admission of needing to buy CW lasers from competitors due to Nvidia-driven bottleneck elevates AAOI and SIVE, who have their own CW laser capacity and are not fully allocated to Nvidia.

Coherent CEO reaffirmed CPO as massive revenue driver with timeline for initial revenue in H2 2026 and scale-up in H2 2027, making it ideal time to frontrun CPO adjacent names like SIVE and LITE before market prices in the volume drivers.

AXTI's InP substrate is critical for optical buildout with LITE; going long AXTI despite risk because if AXTI fails, LITE and others also suffer, making the risk worth it.

Buy these stocks at the bottom for full supercycle exposure as markets are forward-looking and will price in future scaling from 2026 to 2028.

CPO (co-packaged optics) is the #1 thematic long with TAM going from $0 to $91B. New dominant players in non-US markets (Europe: SIVE, SOI) and existing US players (LITE, COHR) stand to benefit. Legacy pluggable revenue faces cannibalization, but pure-play CPO names will surge once mass production starts.

Photonics supply chain entering supercycle with CPO as compelling theme; rotated from LITE/COHR into SIVE for greater upside.

Export controls on Rasa/NCI to halt China's InP substrate production would cause collateral damage to IQE and LITE, while controls on Ulvac and other chokepoints for humanoid production have less collateral harm.