πŸ”¬ Post presents bullish theses on four photonics/advanced packaging plays: SIVE (CW laser supplier, expected to become next LITE), LPK (glass substrates, pure exposure, upcoming volume ramp), AAOI (largest US photonics supply chain, 1

high convictionFirst mentioned Apr 21, 2026

Post presents bullish theses on four photonics/advanced packaging plays: SIVE (CW laser supplier, expected to become next LITE), LPK (glass substrates, pure exposure, upcoming volume ramp), AAOI (largest US photonics supply chain, 1.6T wave), IQE (critical epiwafer supplier, bottlenecked, undervalued). All are long-term holds due to the photonics supercycle and AI scaling.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +Photonics TAM from $14B to $154B in two years
  • +$LITE backlogged into 2028
  • +Almost every major semi company adopting glass substrates
  • +AOI building largest Made in America supply chains
  • +IQE is bottlenecked on epiwafer level, $MTSI paid off their debt
Catalysts
  • ⚑1.6T transceiver wave
  • ⚑CPO adoption
  • ⚑Glass substrate volume ramp
  • ⚑Sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables
Risks
  • βˆ’SIVE: TAM capture risk, Win Semi volume risk
  • βˆ’LPK: cyclical equipment downturns
  • βˆ’AAOI: short-term volatility, dilution
  • βˆ’IQE: financial track record concerns (mitigated by strategic importance)

Chart

Post Timeline Β· 1 posts

new thesishigh

When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling…

Thesis: Post presents bullish theses on four photonics/advanced packaging plays: SIVE (CW laser supplier, expected to become next LITE), LPK (glass substrates, pure exposure, upcoming volume ramp), AAOI (larg…

view on X β†—SIVE Β· LPK Β· AAOI Β· IQE
Current Price
$24.00
via cornerstones
Return from entry
β€”
entry Apr 21, 2026
Thesis Lifecycle
πŸ‘€
watchedApr 21, 2026

LPK may benefit from glass core substrate exposure, similar to SOI's position as a chokepoint.

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openedApr 23, 2026+2 conv

Investing in EU small caps like ALRIB, LPK, and SIVE to prevent hostile actors from taking over critical supply chain chokepoints needed by America.

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updatedApr 23, 2026-1 conv

Sivers (SIVE) and LPKF Laser (LPK) are positioned for emerging technological shifts in CPO/glass substrates expected around 2027. Sivers is underappreciated for its role in CPO/1.6T optical transceivers, while LPKF holds a key chokepoint in glass core substrates at a low valuation.

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updatedApr 26, 2026

Bullish on AI infrastructure plays: SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers, LPK for glass core substrates, HPS.A and SOI for optical test/packaging, driven by CPU bottleneck and AI inference demand from earlier thread context.

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updatedApr 27, 2026

European monopolies like LPK (Glass Core Substrates) and ALRIB (Quantum/MBE) are performing well and tend to command higher multiples, indicating a bullish outlook.

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updatedApr 28, 2026+1 conv

LPK holds a monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates for advanced packaging and CPO, with momentum ramping up as a customer collaboration for mass-production equipment signals transition from qualification to high volume.

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updatedApr 29, 2026

LPK is a monopoly chokepoint in glass core substrates for advanced packaging and CPO applications, benefiting from the next wave of packaging technology.

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updatedApr 29, 2026

LPK has a functional monopoly on laser induced deep etching for glass substrates, which are the next advanced packaging wave, providing pure play exposure without the drag of SKC or INTC.

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updatedApr 30, 2026

LPKF is a long-term play on 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production; current earnings are irrelevant as seen with AEHR.

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updatedApr 30, 2026

The stock is in qualification stage, so revenue miss is not concerning. Need to wait for earnings call; if negative, then panic is justified.

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updatedApr 30, 2026+2 conv

LPK earnings confirm volume ramp for glass core substrates starting H2 2026, not included in forecasts, making the earnings objectively terrible but actually positive for future growth.

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updatedApr 30, 2026-1 conv

LPK dominates a chokepoint and is qualifying with almost every semi, but the volume ramp from semi companies is uncertain.

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updatedMay 4, 2026

Markets validating previous thesis on silicon photonic substrates and glass core substrates as SOI and LPK rise.

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updatedMay 7, 2026

Upstream suppliers like LPK are more derisked than SKC.

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updatedMay 7, 2026+1 conv

LPK is the favorite exposure in glass core substrates as it supplies to everyone; SKC is the lowest market cap leader; HB may piggyback on SKC's success.

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updatedMay 7, 2026+1 conv

LPK is a key supplier of glass substrate machines for the upcoming supercycle, with high gross margins and potential revenue of €400M-€1B+ from just 5 customers by 2027.

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updatedMay 9, 2026

Recent semiconductor developments indicate bullish opportunities across multiple tickers: Intel benefits from Apple shift, Micron from memory tightness and price increases, TSM from revenue growth, NBIS from compute demand, LPK from glass substrate acceleration, and SanDisk from NAND price rise.

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updatedMay 13, 2026-1 conv

Glass substrate shift over next 6 months

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updatedMay 17, 2026+1 conv

Post presents bullish theses on four photonics/advanced packaging plays: SIVE (CW laser supplier, expected to become next LITE), LPK (glass substrates, pure exposure, upcoming volume ramp), AAOI (largest US photonics supply chain, 1.6T wave), IQE (critical epiwafer supplier, bottlenecked, undervalued). All are long-term holds due to the photonics supercycle and AI scaling.

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