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📋 List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc
List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.
Evidence & details
- +AXTI/SMTOY control 60%+ of world's InP substrates as bottleneck of AI buildout.
- +Backlog of $50m in 2024 with TAM of $150m.
- +Google would pay 50x backlog ($2.5B) to avoid delays.
- ⚡Supply chain disruption
- ⚡InP production halt
- −Flow stoppage causing extreme delays to LITE, COHR, AVGO, GOOGL, MSFT
Chart
Post Timeline · 1 posts
@RyanMDorsey23 This is a research note on point failure of the entire AI buildout in $AXTI/China from both substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide. I’m not doing valuation analysis on individual companies But if this flow stops, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO to $GOOGL, $MSF…
Thesis: Failure of AI buildout due to Indium Phosphide bottleneck in $AXTI/China affects companies dependent on InP supply.
Hold or add positions in AI-related stocks due to strong fundamentals; short-term correction is noise; recovery expected after government shutdown ends.
source ↗Reduced bullishness on AMD due to weakening OpenAI dominance; also bearish on OpenAI-dependent stocks (CRWV, ORCL, MSFT).
source ↗InP substrate supply is a critical bottleneck for AI photonics, with a duopoly of $AXTI and $SMTOY controlling majority supply. Hyperscalers' AI programs (TPU v7, Maia, MTIA) are tethered to these companies, leading to price spikes and potential delays.
source ↗Failure of AI buildout due to Indium Phosphide bottleneck in $AXTI/China affects companies dependent on InP supply.
source ↗Elon Musk's $134B lawsuit against OpenAI poses downside risk to AI stocks levered to OpenAI (AMD, CRWV, ORCL, MSFT, APLD, CORZ, RIOT) in worst-case scenario, but author expects middle ground with a large fine and MSFT stepping in, limiting contagion.
source ↗Microsoft is gearing up to ditch OpenAI's models and build their own frontier models, as per a report from Windows Central/FT.
source ↗The 1 million job revision signals a permanent structural shift due to AI/automation, not a slowing economy. Corporate profits will explode as companies replace human labor with AI and robotics. Investors should buy AI supply chain equities to hedge against unemployment and benefit from margin expansion.
source ↗Photonics bottleneck due to China-controlled materials and Nvidia securing EML capacity will cause supply constraints for hyperscalers META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL.
source ↗Bullish on MSFT due to OpenAI liquidity unlock making risk/reward compelling for leaps; bullish on META due to blowout earnings and manageable impact from Avocado launch delay.
source ↗Buying beaten-down names (MSFT, RDDT, HOOD, IBIT) as rate cut odds spike, suggesting a potential rebound.
source ↗Discovery of Microsoft's secret involvement with Riber (ALRIB) for quantum computing, highlighting the importance of MBEs.
source ↗List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.
source ↗Microsoft faces a supply chain vulnerability as a geopolitical adversary acquired ficonTEC, a key supplier of automated assembly and testing machines.
source ↗