MSTR · Strategy IncStrategy Inc

MSTR's NAV premium is compressed due to short MSTR/long BTC, but on a Bitcoin run (likely in Oct), NAV could recorrect higher, making MSTR attractive. Long term, MSTR may be nationalized into US Treasury.

The author provides ratings (Strong Buy, Buy, Sell, Strong Sell) with brief explanations for each stock. Overall sentiment is mixed: bullish on names like RDDT, SNAP, AMZN, ETOR, NBIS, LTC and several others with specific catalysts; bearish on TSLA, CRCL, PLTR, BMNR, and quantum/AI hype stocks as overvalued or cult-like.

Compares crypto-exposed holding companies: BMNR is worse than holding ETH, MARA is a mix of BTC and mining, MSTR is an exception due to BTC accumulation and potential US government nationalization.

MSTR is unlikely to be liquidated because Bitcoin likely won't stay below cost average through the next halving and 2029 interest payment, and Saylor likely won't sell Bitcoin but may slow purchases.

MSTR and BMNR have suffered severe declines in the recent deleveraging shock, and ETH is a poor long above $4k as network usage does not drive price.

Post-Fed rate cut analysis provides stock ratings with explanations: Strong Buy on stablecoin, semi, and growth plays; Buy on AI infrastructure and select recovery plays; Avoid on overvalued or fundamental-less stocks.

The January Effect is expected to cause mean reversion rallies in beaten-down stocks with strong forward earnings, including MSTR, HIMS, SMCI, SNAP, and MRVL due to end-of-year tax loss harvesting.

Venezuela holds ~600K+ BTC ($60B+), likely to be seized by U.S. and locked up as frozen assets or strategic reserve, reducing liquid supply and supporting higher Bitcoin prices, bullish for MSTR and Bitcoin holders.

Long MSTR as a recovery play given mnav normalized and delisting risk avoided.

Attracted to SOL based on historical bounce pattern from $100-120 to $165-185; planning to cost average and heavy add CRCL and MSTR as part of crypto rotation.

Crypto names have been reset after significant drawdowns, institutions are buying, and it's an opportunity to ride the wave back up.

Short sellers of MSTR are also long Bitcoin, arbitraging the MNAV premium from 1.8-2 levels back to 1, capping losses as MNAV is unlikely to increase to 2 or 4.

No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.