MTSI · MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
📋 Long-term bullish on MTSI due to involvement as an investor and clearing debt, with 45M locked up indicating stability; short-term bearish risk from arbitrageurs in convertible note offering
Long-term bullish on MTSI due to involvement as an investor and clearing debt, with 45M locked up indicating stability; short-term bearish risk from arbitrageurs in convertible note offering.
Evidence & details
- +Trading at ~$440M now, expectation of $2-3B
- ⚡CW/EML laser bottleneck
- ⚡Scaling from Jabil and others
Chart
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@rodrimartinezgg Trading at ~$440M right now but my expectation is $2-3B today. Then could be $MTSI $17-20B MC in a year and half once Jabil and others scale up.
Thesis: Expects SIVE market cap to reach $2-3B from current $440M due to its role in CW/EML laser bottleneck. Longer-term sees potential for MTSI-like growth.
Memory supercycle supply chain beneficiaries: US sleeper HBM4/Memory alpha picks benefiting from MU and SK Hynix/Samsung.
source ↗Continuous wave lasers connect $SIVE and $MTSI as beneficiaries of hyperscaler capex in optical supply chain.
source ↗Laser supply constraint is a bottleneck for semiconductors, making laser companies attractive investments.
source ↗EML/CW bottleneck creates severe supply constraint, making $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE undervalued even after significant gains.
source ↗Identifies winners in optical transceiver PCB bottleneck (SANM, TTMI) and argues laser chokepoints (LITE, SIVE, MTSI, COHR) are more compelling for structural re-rating.
source ↗Institutional investors' next rotation is into external light source technology for optics, focusing on companies like CPO, MTSI, and Furukawa Electric.
source ↗Nvidia's recent investments in optical companies (COHR, LITE, MRVL) signal a coming supply crunch in CW/EML and CPO components, similar to last year's EML supply squeeze. Upstream laser suppliers and foundries will be the biggest beneficiaries.
source ↗Optical interconnects TAM expected to grow from ~$19B to $100B+ by 2030, driven by CPO/Scale Up with SiPh and external CW lasers; listed tickers are favorite names in the sector.
source ↗Photonics CW laser chokepoint presents investment opportunity in high-beta exposure companies.
source ↗MTSI taking IQE out of debt and becoming a strategic investor is incredibly positive for IQE.
source ↗Long-term bullish on MTSI due to involvement as an investor and clearing debt, with 45M locked up indicating stability; short-term bearish risk from arbitrageurs in convertible note offering.
source ↗