NBIS · Nebius Group N.V.Nebius Group N.V.
🔬 AI capex growth to $3-$4 trillion annually by 2030 will benefit companies controlling key AI buildout components: photonics, silicon photonics, laser chokepoints, epiwafer supply chains, neoclouds, and memory
AI capex growth to $3-$4 trillion annually by 2030 will benefit companies controlling key AI buildout components: photonics, silicon photonics, laser chokepoints, epiwafer supply chains, neoclouds, and memory.
Evidence & details
- +Jensen Huang projection of AI capex reaching $3-4 trillion annually by 2030
- +List of companies and their specific roles in AI infrastructure
- ⚡Exponential increase in AI capex
- ⚡Shift to silicon photonics and CPO
- ⚡Expansion of neoclouds and memory demand
- −Execution risk for small companies
- −Competition from larger players
- −Technological disruption
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Post Timeline · 17 posts
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> …
Thesis: AI capex growth to $3-$4 trillion annually by 2030 will benefit companies controlling key AI buildout components: photonics, silicon photonics, laser chokepoints, epiwafer supply chains, neoclouds, an…
$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos an…
Thesis: IREN is facing dilution and is a marketing company, while NBIS has better financing and performance.
Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By…
Thesis: NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler; holding long term without trimming avoids taxes and compounds, while borrowing against assets is better than selling.
$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket. Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations. 4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures. G…
Thesis: NBIS earnings stellar, trading up premarket; reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026 with 40% adj. EBITDA margin, 4 GW contracted capacity, and $6.3B capital secured by NVDA.
As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. $NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet. So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means. It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured powe…
Thesis: IREN is a poor investment compared to NBIS because NVDA did not fund IREN, requiring constant ATM dilution to buy GPUs, while NVDA funded NBIS. IREN is essentially a marketing company with no equity a…
Do you guys think there’s only $5,650,000,000 dilution to go with $IREN? Very surprising that people haven’t switched to $NBIS or other names if you’re long Neoclouds. One already has confirmed funding with $NVDA + convertibles from institutions. The other is likely actively s…
Thesis: Post contrasts IREN and NBIS, favoring NBIS due to better financing structure (confirmed funding from NVDA and institutional convertibles) versus IREN's reliance on market dilution to fund capacity, m…
@daniel_koss Yep, but markets are forward looking. Originally their deal with $META was $3B but it’s 9’xed to $27B cumulative… This is a huge signal of confidence to Nebius as the infra of choice for AI.
Thesis: Nebius is the infrastructure of choice for AI, evidenced by a massive expansion of its deal with META from $3B to $27B cumulative.
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis So I actually like $COHR more than $LITE right now and sold my LITE positions at ~$385. I did some internal research the other day and found some potential issues but didn't publish it yet. That being said it's still a good long but not as high c…
Thesis: Sold LITE positions at ~$385 due to potential issues found in internal research. Still considers LITE a good long but not as high conviction as NBIS.
@__visionxry__ Good question! As for $CRWV, $NBIS, and $IREN, I haven’t done a BOM on B300 clusters, but optical networking is probably around 10-20% of capex. I remember doing calculations and increasing InP prices by 30 times would only create a 3% marginal increase on cluste…
Thesis: Discussion about InP cost impact and potential shift to custom ASICs, but no explicit thesis on any ticker.
@__visionxry__ $NBIS has a 25 million share ATM that's likely being sold on the open market. $CRWV went up 5.13%+ today while $NBIS ended the day down 3.91%. That's why I really dislike ATMs at this size. It's just basically waiting for the company to finish the ATM offering…
Thesis: NBIS has a large 25 million share ATM offering being sold on the open market, causing dilution and downward price pressure.
@LoganMacGregor9 Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just u…
Thesis: Lists four main risks for NBIS and other AI infrastructure companies: hyperscaler vertical integration, GPU depreciation, credit tightening/dilution, and overbuildout due to software efficiency breakt…
@soulbiri1 I would catch Omoroi’s falling knife too on $NBIS since everyone deserves love. March-may calls are safer but I expect weebius to recover!
Thesis: Expects NBIS to recover; suggests March-May calls as safer strategy.
@yianisz The deal looks a lot worse for $IREN when you look into FCF generated more instead of revenue numbers since it's not pure colo. When you normalize to 300 MW and compare MSFT deals $IREN is projected to do ~30s gross or even low single digits in bear cases, and $NBIS ~…
Thesis: IREN's deal with MSFT looks worse when considering FCF generation and normalized margins compared to NBIS. IREN takes on $5.8B CapEx for GPUs, leading to low margins (30s gross or low single digits in…
@moninvestor After looking into it more, looks like $NBIS's deal with $MSFT was largely better than $IREN's in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. It's not purely about revenue, since if you're not generating FCF from it, it's not that useful. For …
Thesis: Comparison of NBIS and IREN deals with Microsoft: NBIS shows higher gross margin (51.76%) vs IREN (~38%) when normalized to 300 MW, suggesting NBIS may have better profitability.
No news dips are always a nice gift $NBIS. (Added calls at~$122.9) https://t.co/LmgjK3uoog
Thesis: No news dips present buying opportunities; added calls at ~$122.9.
@rknfshgdt If you wanted to chase more gains, I'd sell your Mag7 for hypergrowth stocks like $NBIS. If you have a family to take care of and can't take any risk, there's nothing bad about holding SPY/QQQ/Mag7 and just compounding more slowly over time. Answer depends on your…
Thesis: Recommends selling Mag7 for hypergrowth stock NBIS, citing full conviction but acknowledging black swan risk.
@soulbiri1 Lol the portfolio etf above id be comfortable 1.5x margin. I'd be fine trimming $ASTS after 32% recovery. I still like $LTC and $BTC at these prices so I wouldn't trim for more $NBIS. Make sure to sell CC's!
Thesis: Trimming ASTS after 32% recovery; maintaining bullish stance on LTC and BTC at current prices; not adding NBIS.
Bullish on multiple high-growth tech stocks including AAOI, NBIS, ARM, MRVL, SIVE, AMZN, RDDT, INTC, AMKR based on revenue ramp and long-term potential.
source ↗Neoclouds like NBIS and IREN can grow a defensible moat and become the next AWS by meeting hyperscalers' immediate power needs.
source ↗The post outlines a portfolio of long positions across optical, AI, semiconductors, energy, and other sectors, with specific revenue ramp projections and long-term bets.
source ↗Post contrasts IREN and NBIS, favoring NBIS due to better financing structure (confirmed funding from NVDA and institutional convertibles) versus IREN's reliance on market dilution to fund capacity, making NBIS the superior Neocloud investment for equity appreciation.
source ↗AI-driven photonics and advanced packaging supercycles are just beginning, with beneficiaries including SIVE, AAOI, AEHR, NBIS, AMKR, and POET.
source ↗Companies in the Neocloud segment that have already secured capacity and component orders, such as NBIS and CRWV, are likely to be major winners as hyperscaler buildout delays cause competition to stall.
source ↗List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.
source ↗IREN cannot monetize 4GW+ capacity without financing and chose ATMs instead of better options like NBIS did with convertible notes and NVDA investment. Dilution via $6B ATM is destroying value, making IREN a poor investment compared to NBIS, which is up 61% YTD.
source ↗Existing bullish thesis on NBIS is finally playing out after a short-term timing error.
source ↗NBIS is scaling its Sum of Parts through Clickhouse, Avride, and others alongside its Neocloud business, supporting the existing bullish thesis.
source ↗NBIS offers long term share price appreciation without dilution, unlike IREN, as its Sum of Parts scaling through Clickhouse, Avride, and Neocloud plays out.
source ↗Reaffirms long-term bullish thesis on a basket of semiconductor and related stocks, noting that short-term entry points vary but overall market validation continues.
source ↗Bearish on IREN due to massive dilution of $6B, questioning why anyone is long. Bullish on NBIS as it is perceived as derisked alongside ORCL and MSFT.
source ↗Nebius (NBIS) is the favorite neocloud and potentially the next hyperscaler, with strong sum-of-parts value from Avride to Clickhouse and a balance sheet enabling AI Cloud scaling.
source ↗Recent semiconductor developments indicate bullish opportunities across multiple tickers: Intel benefits from Apple shift, Micron from memory tightness and price increases, TSM from revenue growth, NBIS from compute demand, LPK from glass substrate acceleration, and SanDisk from NAND price rise.
source ↗IREN is a poor investment compared to NBIS because NVDA did not fund IREN, requiring constant ATM dilution to buy GPUs, while NVDA funded NBIS. IREN is essentially a marketing company with no equity appreciation for holders.
source ↗NBIS earnings stellar, trading up premarket; reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026 with 40% adj. EBITDA margin, 4 GW contracted capacity, and $6.3B capital secured by NVDA.
source ↗NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler; holding long term without trimming avoids taxes and compounds, while borrowing against assets is better than selling.
source ↗Believes INTC, RKLB, and NBIS will survive and grow over the long term, suggesting a buy-and-hold strategy without new positions.
source ↗AI capex growth to $3-$4 trillion annually by 2030 will benefit companies controlling key AI buildout components: photonics, silicon photonics, laser chokepoints, epiwafer supply chains, neoclouds, and memory.
source ↗