πŸ“‹ CPU supply shortage driving price hikes and capex increases, benefiting CPU makers and foundry

medium convictionFirst mentioned Feb 2, 2026 at $185.61

CPU supply shortage driving price hikes and capex increases, benefiting CPU makers and foundry.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +UDN reported upward revision in volume
  • +Foxconn began shipping CPO switch racks to NVDA
  • +CPO products produced in Foxconn's Vietnam plant, where Shunsin has been aggressively expanding for CPO
Catalysts
  • ⚑CPO volume ramp driven by NVDA orders
  • ⚑Foxconn's strategic support and investment in Bac Giang facility

Chart

Post Timeline Β· 5 posts

new thesishigh

Highly bullish implications today for Shunsin (6451). Which is Foxconn’s SiPH and CPO packaging/test arm. -> UDN reported upward revision in volume and Foxconn began shipping cpo switch racks to $NVDA -> CPO products are being produced in Foxconn's Vietnam plant… Guess whic…

Thesis: Shunsin is Foxconn's SiPH and CPO packaging/test arm, now benefiting from CPO volume ramp as Foxconn ships CPO switch racks to NVDA and expands Vietnam facility, indicating start of massive growth.

new thesishigh

Kevin Warsh is the next Federal Reserve Chair. Markets may confuse him as a "Hawk". His actual stance in 2026 is nuanced. Here's his policies and how they affect the markets: 1. AI/Semis ( $NVDA, $MU): Extremely Bullish 2. Metals (Silver, Gold): Extreme Bearish 3. Crypto ( …

Thesis: Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is expected to be bullish for AI/semis (NVDA, MU), crypto (BTC, CRCL), banking (JPM, BOA), small-caps (RUT), and cautious for European stocks (VGK, EZU), based on his pro-AI, …

view on X β†—NVDA Β· MU Β· BTC Β· CRCL Β· JPM Β· BOA Β· RUT Β· VGK Β· EZU
new thesismedium

Thinking about buying $CRWV on the $NVDA deal? Here's the way to think about it: A casino gives you more money, so you could take on more debt with collateral to gamble. Then all the extra money goes back to the Casino (aka. $NVDA). That doesn't make Coreweave a good long. …

Thesis: CoreWeave's deal with Nvidia is analogous to a casino giving more money to gamble, leading to increased debt that ultimately benefits Nvidia. CoreWeave is not a good long due to high debt and interest…

view on X β†—CRWV Β· NVDA
risk signalmedium

@EarningsMindset Yeah, the topic was about how the TPU v7 Ironwood is the first competitive alternative to $NVDA and performs better for specific inference workloads. The current $NVDA backlog is a security guarantee for medium term. It's just a question of whether TPUs continue…

Thesis: TPU v7 Ironwood is a competitive alternative to NVDA GPUs for inference, but next-gen NVDA likely maintains lead; bear case if TPUs outperform, demand shifts, and AI compute demand lessens.

risk signalmedium

@LoganMacGregor9 Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just u…

Thesis: Lists four main risks for NBIS and other AI infrastructure companies: hyperscaler vertical integration, GPU depreciation, credit tightening/dilution, and overbuildout due to software efficiency breakt…

view on X β†—NBIS Β· IREN Β· CRWV Β· ORCL Β· NVDA Β· AMD
Current Price
$214.25
via cornerstones
Return from entry
+15.43%
entry Feb 2, 2026 @ $185.61
Signal-day returns
+7 days+2.39%
+30 days-1.38%
Thesis Lifecycle
πŸ“
updatedDec 31, 2025-1 conv

These stocks are oversold and have strong fundamentals, making them candidates for mean reversion rallies.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 2, 2026+1 conv

A comprehensive set of stock ratings for 2026, focusing on recovery plays from tax-loss harvesting and sector tailwinds in AI, semiconductors, data centers, and defense, while avoiding overvalued quantum and retail names.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 11, 2026-1 conv

Walmart's P/E ratio is comparable to Nvidia's, which is illogical given Walmart is a low-margin reseller while Nvidia is at the center of AI boom.

source β†—
⚠️
review neededJan 13, 2026

NVDA's partnership with Hyundai for FSD and mass production of Atlas from Boston Dynamics.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedJan 28, 2026

CoreWeave's deal with Nvidia is analogous to a casino giving more money to gamble, leading to increased debt that ultimately benefits Nvidia. CoreWeave is not a good long due to high debt and interest payments, while Nvidia is the better bet.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedFeb 1, 2026+1 conv

Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is expected to be bullish for AI/semis (NVDA, MU), crypto (BTC, CRCL), banking (JPM, BOA), small-caps (RUT), and cautious for European stocks (VGK, EZU), based on his pro-AI, pro-deregulation, and rate-cut stance.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedFeb 2, 2026-1 conv

Market liquidation cascades from silver crash and hawkish Fed nomination fears, but overall fundamentals remain bullish with expected rate cuts and AI growth. Recommend repositioning to FCF-generating names and being cautious on speculative high-beta names.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedFeb 6, 2026+1 conv

Hyperscaler AI capex is increasing dramatically, benefiting AI supply chain companies, especially ASICs, memory, and key enablers like TSM and NVDA. Hidden beneficiaries like AAOI, POET, MRVL, LITE also benefit.

source β†—
⚠️
review neededFeb 7, 2026

Tesla Optimus bottlenecks identified: Real World Intelligence (NVDA), The Hand (possibly VPG), and Scale Manufacturing (Chinese suppliers).

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedFeb 15, 2026-1 conv

Hyperscalers going into debt for AI capex benefits chip suppliers like NVDA, TSM, AVGO as they transfer balance sheets to them.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedFeb 16, 2026+1 conv

The 1 million job revision signals a permanent structural shift due to AI/automation, not a slowing economy. Corporate profits will explode as companies replace human labor with AI and robotics. Investors should buy AI supply chain equities to hedge against unemployment and benefit from margin expansion.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedMar 5, 2026-1 conv

Trump administration proposal for AI chip export permits is unlikely to pass; current selloff is overreaction.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedMar 5, 2026

US Commerce Department denies return to AI diffusion rule, countering negative reporting that caused sell-off in semis, supporting NVDA and AMD.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedMar 28, 2026

Portfolio designed to profit from a doomsday scenario involving US ground troops in Iran and Iranian retaliation, with specific positions betting on financial crisis, oil spike, tech crash, Lucid collapse, volatility, and Nvidia decline.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedMar 28, 2026+1 conv

Nvidia at $4.1T market cap faces downside risk from liquidity crunch and energy crisis exacerbated by potential Iran escalation, with Israel maintaining conflict stance.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedMar 31, 2026

Nvidia prefers SIVE independent, but potential share acquisition by MRVL or acquisition by AVGO to choke competitors' CPO roadmap.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedMar 31, 2026+1 conv

NVIDIA is aggressively advancing its CPO (co-packaged optics) architectural roadmap and securing major industry players into its standards, positioning itself to lead in photonics.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedApr 10, 2026

Speculation that NVDA buying a stake in Win Semi would be bullish due to Win Semi's history of attracting strategic investments like from AVGO.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedApr 13, 2026+1 conv

LITE sold out into 2029 with CPO mass production confirmed for H2 2026; NVDA upstream supply chain for CPO/photonics benefits.

source β†—
πŸ“
updatedApr 23, 2026

CPU supply shortage driving price hikes and capex increases, benefiting CPU makers and foundry.

source β†—