POETPOET Technologies Inc.

Rotation into CPO/ELS/SiPh supply chain for AI infrastructure supercycle, following previous rotation from memory to photonics. Heavily adding to SIVE, TSEM, SOI, AEHR, and POET as direct exposure to the next bottleneck resolution (optical interconnects).

Nvidia's $2B investment in Marvell validates the optical fabric CPO ecosystem, benefiting POET and its light source supplier SIVE.

SIVE is a critical light source for NVDA and MRVL's Celestial platform, making it a key beneficiary alongside POET.

AI-driven photonics and advanced packaging supercycles are just beginning, with beneficiaries including SIVE, AAOI, AEHR, NBIS, AMKR, and POET.

Increased bullishness on the celestial ecosystem (POET, SIVE) due to NVDA's $2B deal with MRVL, indicating growth in the ecosystem.

Nvidia's $2B investment into Marvell's Celestial CPO program is catalyzing a photonics supercycle; upstream beneficiaries include POET (optical engines), SIVE (laser source), SOI/AXTI (substrates), and IQE (epiwafers), with supply shocks expected earlier than anticipated.

IQE has binary upside potential (5-10x) if restructuring and InP AI segments succeed; POET has low downside risk due to cash balance and upside if qualifies with partners beyond Celestial; AXTI could reach $10B market cap if it weaponizes its supply chain, otherwise current valuation is reasonable; AAOI could 4x in a year if execution succeeds.

POET has low downside risk due to high cash balance relative to market cap, and is the sole source supplier of Marvell's Celestial, with potential for multi-billion valuation if customer diversification improves. SIVE has similar supply chain exposure at a lower market cap.

Qualification cycles for POET and SIVE are long, preventing quick design-out. Multi-sourcing is expected over time but not in short term for 2028 volume ramp.

Supply chain mapping based on confirmed agreements provides high confidence in the investment thesis for $SIVE and $POET, with near-certainty for early production cycles.

SIVE (and POET) may become light source supplier for Google's TPU via MRVL's custom ASIC, using Celestial IP Photonic Fabric, with multi-year catalyst past 2028.

POET's purchase orders and Marvell supplier relationships confirm strong demand, which translates to material benefit for SIVE's laser production. Markets haven't fully priced in either yet.

Photonics supercycle with multiple architectural shifts. Beneficiaries include LITE, COHR for current cycle (still 50%+ upside), AAOI and JBL for transitional bridge, SIVE and POET for CPO future, AXTI for all cycles, and ALMU for future quantum dot packaging.

AI hyperscaler demand is causing widespread supply chain bottlenecks across semiconductors, materials, and infrastructure components, benefiting companies exposed to CPUs, semiconductor equipment, photoresists, grid components, optical modules, and photonics.

Marvell cancelled POET purchase orders after CFO violated NDA, highlighting single customer concentration risk for POET.

MRVL will likely design out POET for interposer packaging and instead buy lasers from LITE or SIVE, doing packaging in-house, which is negative for POET.

POET's recent reaction (likely stock drop) is not an overreaction due to single source customer concentration risk.

POET is at risk of being designed out by MRVL because POET only buys and packages lasers, and MRVL can go directly to laser sources, causing delays to POET's roadmap.

Metaphor describing supply chain for optical components: SIVE and LITE produce specialized components (blue/red lobsters), POET processes them, MRVL integrates and sells. Nvidia buying red lobsters (alternative supply) may push MRVL to buy directly from SIVE/LITE, bypassing POET. The situation is fluid.

Post argues that FOCI is undervalued compared to POET, highlighting FOCI's critical role as bottleneck for CPO volume ramp and main supplier to TSM and NVDA, expecting outperformance once institutions discover it.