QLCM
📋 Bearish on ARM and Qualcomm
Bearish on ARM and Qualcomm. For ARM, personal bias towards RISC-V. For Qualcomm, sees Mediatek as better long-term due to high-growth ASIC arm with GOOGL.
Evidence & details
- +Hyperscalers may build their own datacenters and drop contracts, akin to Apple dropping Qualcomm.
- +GPUs depreciate over 4 years, affecting full-stack providers.
- +Credit tightening could force dilutive raises or high-interest debt.
- +LLM software breakthroughs could reduce GPU utilization, crashing demand.
- ⚡Hyperscaler vertical integration
- ⚡GPU depreciation curve
- ⚡Credit market conditions
- ⚡LLM efficiency breakthroughs
- −Customer loss to hyperscaler self-build
- −GPU value erosion
- −Dilution or expensive debt
- −Overcapacity from software improvements
Chart
Post Timeline · 1 posts
@LoganMacGregor9 Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just u…
Thesis: Lists four main risks for NBIS and other AI infrastructure companies: hyperscaler vertical integration, GPU depreciation, credit tightening/dilution, and overbuildout due to software efficiency breakt…
Bearish on ARM and Qualcomm. For ARM, personal bias towards RISC-V. For Qualcomm, sees Mediatek as better long-term due to high-growth ASIC arm with GOOGL.
source ↗No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.