📋 Blue Origin's failure indirectly benefits SpaceX and Rocket Lab due to high…

medium convictionFirst mentioned Aug 31, 2025 at $48.60

Blue Origin's failure indirectly benefits SpaceX and Rocket Lab due to high barriers and limited stable suppliers

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +Having $RKLB sell $750m on open market against any buying pressure is not something to be excited about.
Catalysts
  • Open market sale of $750m shares
Risks
  • Dilution
  • Increased supply pressuring price

Chart

Post Timeline · 2 posts

new thesismedium

Blue Origin 的失败 变相利好 SpaceX 和Rocket Lab。坐火箭是一件门槛非常高的事。而目前稳定安全的供应商就只有这么几个

Thesis: Blue Origin's failure indirectly benefits SpaceX and Rocket Lab due to high barriers and limited stable suppliers

new thesishigh

@beavinvests Sorry but I haven't seen this much delusion since $GME or $AMC holders cheered that the company is dumping stock on them. Having $RKLB sell $750m on open market against any buying pressure is not something to be excited about.

Thesis: RKLB's $750m open market stock sale is bearish due to dilution and overhang.

Current Price
$148.03
via cornerstones
Return from entry
+204.59%
entry Aug 31, 2025 @ $48.60
Thesis Lifecycle
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updatedDec 10, 2025

Post-Fed rate cut analysis provides stock ratings with explanations: Strong Buy on stablecoin, semi, and growth plays; Buy on AI infrastructure and select recovery plays; Avoid on overvalued or fundamental-less stocks.

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updatedDec 17, 2025

Dec 10th Fed rate cut is incredibly bullish for risk assets like RKlB and NBIS medium term (3 months out), especially given growing fundamentals, despite near-term impact from carry trade unwind.

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updatedDec 20, 2025+1 conv

High conviction multi-bagger stocks for 2026: NBIS (AI Compute and Robotaxis), RKLB (Space), ALAB (Connectivity), CRCL (Money Printer), LITE (Hyperscaler ASICs).

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updatedDec 20, 2025-1 conv

Bullish on RKLB and NBIS for 10x returns over 5 years with specific valuation targets; also mentions smaller cap moonshots AAOI, WLAC, TE as low-conviction dabbling.

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updatedJan 1, 2026

Overview of 10 thematic investments for 2026, focusing on evolution, disruption, and bottlenecks in soft robotics, silicon photonics (InP bottleneck), glass substrates, money movement (disruption to card networks), AI cloud layers, LLM cybersecurity, LEO space infrastructure, consumer agentic workflows, distributed computing latency, and copper interconnect life extension. Expresses bullish views on specific companies and bearish on incumbent payment networks Visa and Bank of America.

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updatedJan 24, 2026

User views $RKLB as extremely bullish long term but overvalued short term, thus leaving it out of the short-medium term list.

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updatedFeb 2, 2026-1 conv

Market liquidation cascades from silver crash and hawkish Fed nomination fears, but overall fundamentals remain bullish with expected rate cuts and AI growth. Recommend repositioning to FCF-generating names and being cautious on speculative high-beta names.

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updatedFeb 4, 2026+1 conv

Bitcoin and RKLB are highest conviction assets on a long term timeframe; portfolio allocation into Bitcoin at $73K.

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updatedFeb 7, 2026

FLY is a moonshot pick for its medium lift launch with NOC; RKLB is near-term overvalued but a good buy on further drops.

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updatedFeb 7, 2026+1 conv

Reiterates that RKLB is the most bullish pick on a 10-year timeframe, with a strategy to trim if overextended above $90.

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updatedMar 4, 2026-1 conv

SpaceX IPO in ~3 months will drive parabolic gains for space stocks like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile, especially as investors compare valuations.

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updatedMar 4, 2026

Rocket Lab may build a megaconstellation similar to Starlink using its Neutron rocket and Flatellite satellite platform.

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updatedMar 28, 2026+1 conv

The post outlines a portfolio of long positions across optical, AI, semiconductors, energy, and other sectors, with specific revenue ramp projections and long-term bets.

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updatedApr 9, 2026-1 conv

List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.

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updatedApr 20, 2026

Blue Origin's failure delays ASTS satellite launches, hurting forward revenue growth and making ASTS dependent on competitor SpaceX. RKLB benefits as a byproduct.

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updatedMay 22, 2026

Rocket Lab's $90M US Space Force contract fuels positive narrative amid US space buildup and ahead of SpaceX IPO, even if revenue is modest.

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updatedMay 22, 2026

Believes INTC, RKLB, and NBIS will survive and grow over the long term, suggesting a buy-and-hold strategy without new positions.

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updatedMay 26, 2026+1 conv

太空经济板块受益于2026年太空经济爆发,RKLB/LUNR/RDW/ASTS/PL等公司形成完整产业链,共同受益,板块已集体爆发,相关个股已翻倍。

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updatedMay 27, 2026

RKLB通过收购Motiv强化机器人技术能力,并购整合能力强,增发融资为未来并购和国防项目提供弹药,近期获得太空军订单,看好长期发展。

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updatedMay 29, 2026-1 conv

Blue Origin's failure indirectly benefits SpaceX and Rocket Lab due to high barriers and limited stable suppliers

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