📋 Upstream semi supply chain companies like SIVE (CPO lasers) and SOI (Silicon Photonics substrates) will benefit from massive hyperscaler capex spending, revised up by Goldman to $5

medium convictionFirst mentioned Mar 11, 2026 at $51.30

Upstream semi supply chain companies like SIVE (CPO lasers) and SOI (Silicon Photonics substrates) will benefit from massive hyperscaler capex spending, revised up by Goldman to $5.3T for 2025-2030, with aggregate estimates reaching $7.6T between 2026 and 2031.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +Jensen Huang projection of AI capex reaching $3-4 trillion annually by 2030
  • +List of companies and their specific roles in AI infrastructure
Catalysts
  • Exponential increase in AI capex
  • Shift to silicon photonics and CPO
  • Expansion of neoclouds and memory demand
Risks
  • Execution risk for small companies
  • Competition from larger players
  • Technological disruption

Chart

Post Timeline · 5 posts

new thesismedium

几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830):在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI:主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333):稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI:把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆,毕竟背靠富士康,而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系…

Thesis: 多个实质性垄断标的被列为重点关注,包括MSSCORP、SOI、NGK、AXTI,其中$SIVE逻辑类似,已打入顶尖CPO设计体系。同时提示$HIMX未来存在被踢出局(design out)的风险,但短期内仍有机会。

view on X ↗MSSCORP · SOI · NGK · AXTI · SIVE · HIMX
new thesishigh

AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> …

Thesis: AI capex growth to $3-$4 trillion annually by 2030 will benefit companies controlling key AI buildout components: photonics, silicon photonics, laser chokepoints, epiwafer supply chains, neoclouds, an…

view on X ↗AXTI · SOI · SIVE · IQE · NBIS · MU · SNDK
new thesishigh

People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on…

Thesis: CPO (co-packaged optics) is the #1 thematic long with TAM going from $0 to $91B. New dominant players in non-US markets (Europe: SIVE, SOI) and existing US players (LITE, COHR) stand to benefit. Legac…

view on X ↗SIVE · SOI · LITE · COHR
thesis updatehigh

Just 3 months ago, European media called my $RPI thesis: "A Meme Stock" where earnings isn't factored into decisions. 2 months ago, $SOI was labeled "overvalued, with nothing new with the thesis". This month it's $SIVE is "nothing special with Sivers or CPO, it's been around …

Thesis: European media underestimates $RPI, $SOI, and $SIVE; each are hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns and expected to continue delivering record growth driven by AI, SiPH, and CPO.

view on X ↗RPI · SOI · SIVE
thesis updatehigh

@AtlasShrug1 I’d say that analyst didn’t know what they were talking about then with $SOI if it trades at 1x book value, 2x P/S and is a monopoly over cpo. Not everyone has domain expertise in photonic supply chains

Thesis: Contrarian view that $SOI is undervalued at 1x book value and 2x P/S, and it holds a monopoly over CPO.

Current Price
$11.32
via cornerstones
Return from entry
-77.93%
entry Mar 11, 2026 @ $51.30
Signal-day returns
+7 days+22.81%
+30 days+24.25%
Thesis Lifecycle
📝
updatedApr 30, 2026+1 conv

Institutions are accumulating silicon photonics plays ($SOI, $IQE) as structural chokepoints in AI, validating the user's earlier thesis.

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updatedMay 4, 2026

Markets validating previous thesis on silicon photonic substrates and glass core substrates as SOI and LPK rise.

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updatedMay 5, 2026+2 conv

CPO sector poised for explosive growth from ~$164M in 2026 to $91B by 2028 driven by NVDA's architectural shift, with SIVE and SOI as key beneficiaries.

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updatedMay 5, 2026

CPO supercycle is beginning, with massive supply-demand imbalance starting H2 2026, benefiting high-beta exposure tickers like SIVE, TSEM, SOI.

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updatedMay 7, 2026-1 conv

CPO represents a massive TAM expansion for photonics, benefiting new optical companies like $SIVE and $SOI that were not as exposed to previous pluggable transceiver cycles.

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updatedMay 8, 2026+1 conv

Nomura initiates coverage on SOI with a EUR 250 price target, significantly higher than the author's entry price of ~€43, validating the earlier bullish thesis.

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updatedMay 12, 2026

European media underestimates $RPI, $SOI, and $SIVE; each are hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns and expected to continue delivering record growth driven by AI, SiPH, and CPO.

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updatedMay 12, 2026-1 conv

SOI experienced a macro-driven correction due to Iran war tensions, but fundamentals remain unchanged, presenting a buying opportunity for higher highs.

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updatedMay 13, 2026

Buy these stocks at the bottom for full supercycle exposure as markets are forward-looking and will price in future scaling from 2026 to 2028.

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updatedMay 13, 2026+1 conv

CPO (co-packaged optics) is the #1 thematic long with TAM going from $0 to $91B. New dominant players in non-US markets (Europe: SIVE, SOI) and existing US players (LITE, COHR) stand to benefit. Legacy pluggable revenue faces cannibalization, but pure-play CPO names will surge once mass production starts.

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updatedMay 13, 2026-1 conv

Downstream foundry capacity squeeze driven by TSEM prepayment signals immense demand for raw substrates, benefiting SOI with more revenue.

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updatedMay 20, 2026+1 conv

European photonics companies SIVE, IQE, and SOI are core players hitting double digit recoveries; dips are likely to be bought out.

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updatedMay 24, 2026

AI capex growth to $3-$4 trillion annually by 2030 will benefit companies controlling key AI buildout components: photonics, silicon photonics, laser chokepoints, epiwafer supply chains, neoclouds, and memory.

source ↗
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updatedMay 25, 2026-1 conv

多个实质性垄断标的被列为重点关注,包括MSSCORP、SOI、NGK、AXTI,其中$SIVE逻辑类似,已打入顶尖CPO设计体系。同时提示$HIMX未来存在被踢出局(design out)的风险,但短期内仍有机会。

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updatedMay 28, 2026+1 conv

Soitec (SOI) is up 4X+ since long position, with earnings up 15%+. Company reorganization to meet photonics substrate demand signals continued growth opportunity over next two years.

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updatedMay 28, 2026

Reaffirms long thesis on SOI after significant price appreciation, dismissing media criticism.

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updatedMay 28, 2026-1 conv

Despite negative European media coverage, $SOI has risen over 340%. The poster implies that shorting frontier companies is misguided and that the stock has growth potential.

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updatedJun 1, 2026

Cyclical slump in 2025 with XFAB dragged down near asset replacement value, and legacy automotive cycle near bottom for Melexis/SOI, allowing growth verticals to carry valuations.

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updatedJun 3, 2026+1 conv

Europe's strategic focus on CPO/photonics for AI data centers and niche advanced packaging makes $SOI and $SIVE critical players for sovereign supply chain resilience.

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updatedJun 4, 2026

Upstream semi supply chain companies like SIVE (CPO lasers) and SOI (Silicon Photonics substrates) will benefit from massive hyperscaler capex spending, revised up by Goldman to $5.3T for 2025-2030, with aggregate estimates reaching $7.6T between 2026 and 2031.

source ↗