TSEM · Tower Semiconductor Ltd.Tower Semiconductor Ltd.

Laser supply constraint is a bottleneck for semiconductors, making laser companies attractive investments.

Expects TSEM to double again in 5 months following a 63% rise.

Hyperscaler orders for pluggable optical transceivers are booked through 2028, indicating strong demand for LITE, COHR, and TSEM.

CPO scale-up in 2027-2029 will benefit TSEM, SOI, SIVE; these are current positions after rotating from past winners.

The post outlines a portfolio of long positions across optical, AI, semiconductors, energy, and other sectors, with specific revenue ramp projections and long-term bets.

Rotation into CPO/ELS/SiPh supply chain for AI infrastructure supercycle, following previous rotation from memory to photonics. Heavily adding to SIVE, TSEM, SOI, AEHR, and POET as direct exposure to the next bottleneck resolution (optical interconnects).

Photonics supply chain play: AEHR (testing), TSEM (foundry), AAOI (laser fab/design/assembly).

Rotation into CPO/ELS supply chains driving outperformance despite mega cap weakness.

Nvidia's recent investments in optical companies (COHR, LITE, MRVL) signal a coming supply crunch in CW/EML and CPO components, similar to last year's EML supply squeeze. Upstream laser suppliers and foundries will be the biggest beneficiaries.

Optical interconnects TAM expected to grow from ~$19B to $100B+ by 2030, driven by CPO/Scale Up with SiPh and external CW lasers; listed tickers are favorite names in the sector.

Photonics supercycle beginning with volume ramp in H2 2026; pure play picks for architectural changes in testing, CW lasers, substrates, and foundries; massive TAM growth and forward P/E compression suggest re-rating.

Going long TSEM resulted in near doubling in 3 weeks; questions why institutions would not copy meme stocks.

Multiple photonics/optical component companies are or will become capacity bottlenecks due to surging demand from silicon photonics and CPO. AXTI is currently a bottleneck, TSEM expected to max out in 1-2 years, SIVE upcoming with CW lasers, COHR has strengths in EML but is mixed on other areas, and SOI has a monopoly on SOI substrates required for SiPh and CPO, leading to material revenue increases.

Bullish on transformer/switchgear DC bottleneck (HPS.A), AI CPU ramp (ARM), CW laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027 (SIVE), and photonics foundry (TSEM).

List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.

Expecting CPO mass production ramp beginning H2 2026, frontrunning CPO-related names like SIVE, TSEM, and SOI based on earlier-than-expected timelines and new ASE plant plans.

Foxconn's optical arm Shunsin, which serves NVDA's supply chain, is valued less than the development trial between LWLG and TSEM, suggesting LWLG and TSEM are overvalued.

Bullish on CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) market growth, with SIVE as a key laser supplier and TSEM as a foundry player benefiting from parabolic growth.

CPO supercycle is beginning, with massive supply-demand imbalance starting H2 2026, benefiting high-beta exposure tickers like SIVE, TSEM, SOI.

Photonics stocks are early in a supercycle with significant upside remaining.