VVisa Inc.
📋 Visa's future growth could be cannibalized by fee-free payment systems and USDC, but current market pricing assumes perpetual compounding, which may be overly optimistic
Visa's future growth could be cannibalized by fee-free payment systems and USDC, but current market pricing assumes perpetual compounding, which may be overly optimistic.
Evidence & details
- +The post argues that much of Visa's future growth may be taken by fee-free payment rails and USDC, yet the market prices Visa as if it will compound forever.
- ⚡Rise of fee-free payment systems
- ⚡Adoption of USDC as a payment method
- −Visa may adapt to new payment technologies
- −The fee-free payment scenario may not materialize as quickly as expected
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@beauty_oe VisaやMastercardが消滅するとは思っていません。しかし、今後の成長の大部分は、手数料無料の決済システム（決済レール）やUSDCに奪われる（カニバライズされる）可能性があります。 現在の市場は、$V（Visa株）が永遠に複利成長していくことを前提としている（織り込んでいる）ように思います。
Thesis: Visa's future growth could be cannibalized by fee-free payment systems and USDC, but current market pricing assumes perpetual compounding, which may be overly optimistic.
Overview of 10 thematic investments for 2026, focusing on evolution, disruption, and bottlenecks in soft robotics, silicon photonics (InP bottleneck), glass substrates, money movement (disruption to card networks), AI cloud layers, LLM cybersecurity, LEO space infrastructure, consumer agentic workflows, distributed computing latency, and copper interconnect life extension. Expresses bullish views on specific companies and bearish on incumbent payment networks Visa and Bank of America.
source ↗Long term disruption of card networks and interchange by USDC and crypto platforms like Circle and Coinbase, evidenced by AI agent settlements in USDC, leading to negative impact on V, MA, PYPL.
source ↗Visa's future growth could be cannibalized by fee-free payment systems and USDC, but current market pricing assumes perpetual compounding, which may be overly optimistic.
source ↗No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.