๐Ÿ“‹ Short-term bearish on IREN due to ATM dilution hurting existing shareholders; long-term potential if ATM is filled, but better to wait

medium convictionFirst mentioned Sep 27, 2025

Short-term bearish on IREN due to ATM dilution hurting existing shareholders; long-term potential if ATM is filled, but better to wait. RIOT, WULF, NBIS are structurally better positioned and likely to outperform IREN by 2027.

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Current Price
$26.39
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Return from entry
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entry Sep 27, 2025
Thesis Lifecycle
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updatedNov 14, 2025

Market irrationality over OpenAI effect creates buying opportunity for AI infrastructure companies that are insulated from GPU deprecation, credit risk, and OpenAI dependency.

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updatedNov 14, 2025-1 conv

Another $40B in capex for neoclouds and data center buildout benefiting WULF, CIFR, and GOOGL, while market selloff is unjustified.

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updatedNov 17, 2025

The user expresses bullishness on $NBIS, $CIFR, and $WULF, with $NBIS having clear asymmetrical upside over peers in the Neocloud sector.

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updatedNov 18, 2025+1 conv

TSM forward earnings confirm strong AI demand; hyperscaler buildout continues despite potential NVDA revenue softness, with compute deals flowing to infrastructure companies like IREN, CIFR, WULF, NBIS, CRWV.

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updatedNov 19, 2025

The great reset has brought several stocks back to prices before major fundamental catalysts, creating buying opportunities.

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updatedNov 22, 2025

Post provides a tier list ranking of neocloud sector stocks based on weighted assessments of contract visibility, macro resilience, balance sheet strength, HPC buildout risk, revenue growth trajectory, and market cap relative to revenue ramp. The sector is compelling but some have higher asymmetrical returns.

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updatedNov 25, 2025+1 conv

AI capex is exponentially ramping up and flowing directly to neoclouds, connectivity, energy, semi/foundries, and memory stocks, with multiple recent catalysts confirming record growth with no slowdown in sight.

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updatedNov 25, 2025

Fears of AI bubble centered on OpenAI's massive capex and private LLM valuations; companies directly reliant on OpenAI (ORCL, CRWV) may be in trouble as competitors leapfrog GPT. Conversely, Mag7 capex beneficiaries (CIFR, WULF, IREN, NBIS, ALAB, CRDO) are extremely promising due to increasing capex from Mag7.

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updatedDec 10, 2025

Post-Fed rate cut analysis provides stock ratings with explanations: Strong Buy on stablecoin, semi, and growth plays; Buy on AI infrastructure and select recovery plays; Avoid on overvalued or fundamental-less stocks.

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updatedDec 11, 2025

Market is incorrectly punishing all neocloud stocks due to ORCL/CRWV's risky debt buildout for OpenAI, but NBIS, CIFR, WULF are backed by AAA-rated hyperscaler cash cows and represent a buying opportunity.

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updatedDec 17, 2025+1 conv

The SPEED Act, advancing in the House, de-risks the Neocloud sector by mandating strict permitting deadlines and providing litigation shields, which compresses timelines from contract to revenue, reduces utilization drag, and improves FCF for AI data center companies like NBIS, CRWV, IREN, CIFR, and WULF.

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updatedJan 1, 2026-1 conv

Overview of 10 thematic investments for 2026, focusing on evolution, disruption, and bottlenecks in soft robotics, silicon photonics (InP bottleneck), glass substrates, money movement (disruption to card networks), AI cloud layers, LLM cybersecurity, LEO space infrastructure, consumer agentic workflows, distributed computing latency, and copper interconnect life extension. Expresses bullish views on specific companies and bearish on incumbent payment networks Visa and Bank of America.

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updatedJan 2, 2026+1 conv

A comprehensive set of stock ratings for 2026, focusing on recovery plays from tax-loss harvesting and sector tailwinds in AI, semiconductors, data centers, and defense, while avoiding overvalued quantum and retail names.

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updatedJan 2, 2026

Neocloud segment stocks are extremely solid buys; $WYFI valuation reset makes it extremely attractive along with $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF.

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updatedJan 24, 2026

Personal stock ratings with detailed commentary: Strong Buy on 14 stocks (SNAP, META, MU, TSM, etc.) citing catalysts like memory supercycle, bottlenecks, and AI tailwinds. Buy on 32 stocks including COIN, SMCI, GOOGL, and several crypto and drone plays. Questionable on VELO and SKYT due to weak fundamentals. Avoid on 11 stocks (UAVS, BKKT, PLTR, etc.) due to dilution, high debt, or overvaluation. Overall bullish on AI, memory, bottlenecks, made-in-America supply chains, and defense, with a long-term view until after midterms.

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updatedFeb 4, 2026-1 conv

Google's enormous CapEx spend ($175-$185B) is bullish for AI buildout, specifically benefiting colo companies $CIFR and $WULF through Fluidstack. Also notes Google shifting to TPUs, so $NBIS may not benefit from Google (but was beneficiary of Meta).

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updatedFeb 15, 2026+1 conv

OpenAI memo to Congress warns that US must expand power grid to maintain AI advantage, reiterating tailwind for energy and power delivery companies, and second-order tailwind for companies with secured GW capacity.

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updatedMar 10, 2026

Comparative analysis of mining stocks: $RIOT, $WULF, $NBIS are structurally better than $CRWV and $IREN, but the latter two serve as better hedges in sector declines.

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updatedMar 10, 2026

Short-term bearish on IREN due to ATM dilution hurting existing shareholders; long-term potential if ATM is filled, but better to wait. RIOT, WULF, NBIS are structurally better positioned and likely to outperform IREN by 2027.

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dormantMay 29, 2026

No qualifying thesis event for 45+ days.