📝 Current bullish thesis on XFAB at $9, implied by track record of past successful European equity longs

low convictionFirst mentioned May 27, 2026

Current bullish thesis on XFAB at $9, implied by track record of past successful European equity longs.

Evidence & details
Evidence
  • +NIST filings state XFAB is the only high volume SiC foundry in America, making it critical infrastructure.
  • +First comprehensive pure play foundry for SiC/GaN.
  • +Listed in CHIPS Act 2 blueprints with Nokia/Nvidia evaluations.
  • +Production ramp expected 2027, volume H1 2028.
Catalysts
  • Nvidia pushing 800 VDC drives demand for power semiconductors.
  • Power semi players like NVTS and WOLF re-rating hard.
  • Expected dual continent subsidies from US and EU governments.
Risks
  • Legacy auto and other cyclical drag (similar to Soitec).
  • Recent volatility and media labeling as memestock.

Chart

Post Timeline · 3 posts

new thesis

Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) …

Thesis: Current bullish thesis on XFAB at $9, implied by track record of past successful European equity longs.

new thesishigh

I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility. Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America. Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov. And they’re the first comprehensive pur…

Thesis: XFAB is compelling at $1.5B MC as a critical SiC/GaN pure-play foundry with US government recognition and CHIPS Act backing, positioned to benefit from power semiconductor re-rating and photonics ramp…

new thesishigh

$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposur…

Thesis: XFAB is a compelling long at $1.28B MC with photonics and power semis growth, low P/B, government backstop from EU and US CHIPS acts, and relationships with NVDA, NVTS, and POWI.

Current Price
via unavailable
Return from entry
entry May 27, 2026
Thesis Lifecycle
🟢
openedMay 27, 2026

XFAB is a compelling long at $1.28B MC with photonics and power semis growth, low P/B, government backstop from EU and US CHIPS acts, and relationships with NVDA, NVTS, and POWI.

source ↗
📝
updatedMay 27, 2026-1 conv

Close relationships with $IQE and $SOI, and familiarity with private photonics companies working with $XFAB, reinforce the bullish thesis on $XFAB as an interesting long idea driven by EU CHIPS Act 2 catalyst.

source ↗
📝
updatedMay 28, 2026+1 conv

XFAB is compelling at $1.5B MC as a critical SiC/GaN pure-play foundry with US government recognition and CHIPS Act backing, positioned to benefit from power semiconductor re-rating and photonics ramp in 2027-2028.

source ↗
📝
updatedMay 28, 2026-2 conv

Current bullish thesis on XFAB at $9, implied by track record of past successful European equity longs.

source ↗