๐Ÿ“‹ Utilities tailwind from rate cuts is nullified by Iran War reducing odds of cuts to zero

medium convictionFirst mentioned Feb 19, 2026

Utilities tailwind from rate cuts is nullified by Iran War reducing odds of cuts to zero.

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Current Price
$44.63
via cornerstones
Return from entry
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entry Feb 19, 2026
Thesis Lifecycle
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updatedFeb 21, 2026+1 conv

Long power/grid sector via XLU as a 2-year trade, driven by AI data center power demand, with grid upgrades providing pricing power and behind-the-meter solutions being insufficient.

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updatedFeb 21, 2026-1 conv

AI inference/training ramp, hyperscaler capex, and rate cuts create a unique bullish moment for utilities (XLU).

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updatedFeb 21, 2026

Power/grid bottleneck due to AI and tech demand makes utilities like $XLU a long-term bullish play, but entry is not urgent.

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updatedFeb 22, 2026+1 conv

US AI growth is bottlenecked by power and grid capacity, leading to a strong re-rating of utilities and power producers in XLU due to AI demand, hyperscaler capex, rate cuts, and geopolitical imperative to rebuild the grid.

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updatedFeb 22, 2026-1 conv

XLU is a structural delta play from power/grid investments and expansion.

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updatedFeb 23, 2026+1 conv

XLU could benefit from grid modernization and AI inference via re-rating, with low IV offering potential for outsized moves. EWY has high probability of Vega expansion and directional upside from memory supercycle, though unlikely to achieve 10x returns short-term without catalysts.

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updatedFeb 25, 2026

Trump's State of the Union expected to announce data center energy deals, which is fundamentally positive for the Power/Grid sector (XLU) by reducing regulatory risk, guaranteeing infrastructure funding, and clearing approval bottlenecks.

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updatedFeb 25, 2026-1 conv

Rerating of the utility sector (XLU) driven by rate cuts, AI inference usage, and grid/power modernization, with recent price action validating the thesis.

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updatedFeb 26, 2026

Planting seeds for future gains by focusing on power/grid sector (XLU) and photonics supply chain (IQE as LITE supplier) driven by AI bottlenecks and capital rotation into Asia.

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updatedFeb 26, 2026

Long $XLU for energy/grid modernization, rate cuts, and AI inference/training usage. No rush, utilities move slowly, but consider leaps with proper IV.

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updatedMar 1, 2026+1 conv

US power grid modernization and expansion is critical for AI dominance, driving a once-in-a-lifetime run for utilities ETF $XLU.

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updatedMar 1, 2026

Maintain bullish on $XLU (US power/grid utilities ETF) driven by US power/grid modernization and rate cuts, with recent price appreciation confirming thesis.

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updatedMar 1, 2026

Continued bullish on XLU (grid/power utilities) with options play exploiting low IV and expected movement.

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updatedMar 1, 2026

Long-term bullish on XLU due to AI inference usage and rate cuts, expecting a once-in-a-lifetime run despite recent large monthly return.

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updatedMar 1, 2026

Wait for a correction in $XLU and for implied volatility on options strikes to be around 14-16% before entering a long position.

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updatedMar 2, 2026+1 conv

Bullish on photonics plays $AAOI and $AXTI as top picks in a momentum sector; bullish on power ETF $XLU due to rate cuts, grid modernization, and hyperscaler inference; bullish on defense stock $LASR driven by Iran conflict catalyst.

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updatedMar 6, 2026-1 conv

XLU is a multi-year long play driven by rate cuts, grid modernization, and inference demand.

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updatedMar 9, 2026

XLU remains a 2-year trade on power grid modernization, AI inference, and rate cuts.

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updatedApr 9, 2026

List of 30 US stocks with brief bullish theses covering semis, AI, space, rare earths, etc.

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updatedMay 22, 2026

Utilities tailwind from rate cuts is nullified by Iran War reducing odds of cuts to zero.

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